The Russians are accumulating forces for a possible offensive on Kharkiv and northeastern Ukraine. This is stated in the May 5 report of the American Institute for the Study of War.

The Russian army has redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne Division (VDV) to the Kursk region and is forming a Northern Group of Forces in the Belgorod-Kharkiv direction.

“The Russian military has concentrated more than 31,000 servicemen in Belgorod region; more than 10,000 servicemen in Kursk region and more than 8,000 servicemen in Bryansk region,” the report says.

At the same time, analysts believe that Russian Northern Group of Forces will not be able to conduct a successful offensive to capture Kharkiv.

“ISW continues to believe that the Russian military lacks the forces necessary to capture the city, but a Russian offensive on Kharkiv and Sumy will lead to the distraction of Ukrainian forces from other, more important areas of the front line,” the report says.