Russia is preparing for a large-scale conflict with NATO. This is evidenced, in particular, by a number of financial, economic and military indicators of the Russian Federation, reports the Institute for the Study of War.

At the same time, analysts noted that the confrontation between Russia and NATO will not take place in the near future, but probably in a shorter time frame than initially assumed in the West. 

European politicians believe that Russia may attack NATO countries in the near future. In particular, Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said that new intelligence indicates that Russia may try to attack the North Atlantic Alliance within three to five years. He also added that this is an accelerated schedule compared to NATO's reported estimate in 2023.

In turn, Polish President Andrzej Duda claims that Russian President Vladimir Putin is stepping up efforts to transform Russia into a military economy with the intention of being able to attack NATO as early as 2026 or 2027. The analysts explained that the timetable for the resumption of the Russian military threat largely depends on the financial resources that Putin is willing to allocate to the army.

The ISW also emphasized that Russia continues to carry out structural reforms to simultaneously support the war in Ukraine and expand its capabilities in the long term in preparation for a potential large-scale conflict with NATO. In particular, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has outlined several ongoing efforts to strengthen Russia's military capabilities, presumably as part of a long-term effort to prepare for a potential war with NATO.

Analysts continue to believe that Russia currently lacks the manpower, military infrastructure, and training capabilities to adequately staff several brand new divisions with army formations to full strength in the near future. However, such reforms are likely to be aimed at building long-term military capabilities in relation to NATO, rather than at immediately creating and manning new formations to army level.