The termination of the grain corridor in July 2023 will be fully compensated by food supplies via a new sea route that opened in August. It is possible that the logistics capacity of this route will be further increased. This is reported in the "Inflation Report" of the National Bank of Ukraine (January 2024).
"The average monthly volume of goods delivered through the new sea corridor will be about 7 million tons. The capacity will be sufficient not only for the export of the 2023-2024 harvest, but also for increasing exports of mining and metals products," the report says.
According to the NBU, the continuation of positive trends will ensure higher export volumes, and further improvement of the effectiveness of currency supervision measures will ensure timely receipt of foreign exchange earnings. This will contribute to a faster economic recovery, strengthen the NBU's ability to maintain exchange rate stability, and accelerate the process of easing currency restrictions.
However, Russia's shelling of port infrastructure could have a negative impact on shipping. This will complicate the export of export products and lead to a decrease in foreign exchange earnings and, accordingly, a deterioration in the financial condition of exporters, the NBU notes.