Russia's recognition of the two entities in the Donbas could lead to large-scale military action, as the separatist regimes consider the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions their territory. Tatyana Ivanova, Ukraine's representative in the trilateral contact group, believes that Ukraine has won a diplomatic victory, but the danger of military action so far outweighs the political dividends.

Is Russia's recognition of the separatist regimes in Donetsk and Luhansk a diplomatic defeat for Russia?

At the diplomatic level, Russia no longer has anything to say. Because everyone is tired of her lies, and of the twists and turns, and of the unrealizable promises she makes, and of the manipulations, and when she says that black is white. Clearly everyone already understands and sees that they are fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk, and they say, "We are not there. The whole world is already tired of this. And there is nothing to say to Russia - everyone and everything understands. And I think there is nothing left for Russia but to show its teeth and strength. They do not dare to go on a large-scale and at once, so they have so far decided on the way "we recognize the DNR-LNR, which means Russian troops will officially go there now, given that the constitution of the DPR and LPR defines their territory not as the territories they now occupy, but the entire Luhansk and Donetsk region, then, of course, they will most likely go with large military forces to Mariupol. And the pretext will be the treaty they signed. I think it will be the beginning of a big war, and from there they will be able to join from the Belarusian and Northern directions. Depending on how it goes here: they will look whether the West and the US get involved or not. And if they see that they can go, they'll keep going. If the U.S. and Europe remain inert, they will go as long as they are not stopped by force.

Is there any chance that sanctions will be imposed?

Even if sanctions are imposed, I don't think they will significantly affect Putin's military advance into Ukraine. People will suffer from these sanctions, things will be quite bad for the socially disadvantaged, but the dictatorial regime is not at all interested in how people will exist. And then there will be a simple situation - you will definitely go to the draft, and there will be barrier troops behind you, who will shoot you in the back. This is the narrative of the dictatorial regime. Over the years, they have accustomed people to the fact that they have to bend over. Lower their eyes and do what they don't even like. Over the years, people are accustomed to it.

Is there any chance that Ukraine will get at least a diplomatic bonus?

Of course, Ukraine will receive a diplomatic bonus, but this will not make things easier for it. Because Russia, taking into account its experience, does not give a damn about all the diplomatic efforts. The only thing that can change is if there is real support for Ukraine in the form of "closed skies" in the form of military assistance. Only then can the situation change, and only then can Russia be stopped. Otherwise it will not stop. This is clear by now.

I so think that they will not just put Russian troops there, but also the CSTO. And this will be very bad for the CSTO countries, as well as for Azerbaijan, because Russian troops are there. And Azerbaijan will understand that the Russians are there for a long time, if not forever.

As far as it is clear, the TAG meetings and the Minsk agreements in general are a thing of the past?

I am a member of the Trilateral Contact Group, and I now understand that the Minsk talks are now dead and there will be no regular meetings on the first or second of March. Although I wouldn't be surprised if Russia showed up on March 1 and said, where is everybody? Let's negotiate? Because there is Ukraine, there are separate districts, and when we answer where these districts are, if you recognized them, we will be told: we have recognized them, but for you they are not recognized, for you they are ORDLO (occupied districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions), so let us negotiate further. I am not surprised by any cynicism, because during my time in the TCG I have seen so much cynicism from Russia, that nothing will surprise me.

You said in one interview that Russia, in fact, did not make any proposals during the TCG meetings, and therefore the claims to the Ukrainian side, which Putin spoke about in the evening, look strange.

There are several Russian representatives in the trilateral contact group. Each subgroup has its own representative: political, security, socio-economic and humanitarian. As far as I know from my colleagues in the other subgroups - security, socio-economic and political - Russia's representatives say at least something else. In the humanitarian subgroup, for the whole year, apart from saying "hello" and "goodbye" at the end, they could only say "we don't mind a technical break" in the middle. And that's all they say in the humanitarian subgroup. They only insist that we have to negotiate with the ORDLO, and they will just come and sit and listen.

Front News

Beslan Kmuzov