If the problem of the shortage of ammunition and other military equipment in Ukraine is not resolved in the near future, the Ukrainian front line may become "more fragile" and there is a risk of a breakthrough in defense. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
"Prioritizing sectors most at risk from an intense Russian offensive could create vulnerabilities elsewhere that Russian forces could exploit for a sudden and unexpected advance if Ukrainian supplies continue to decline. Russia's retention of the initiative increases the risks of such a development for the command to increase or decrease operations anywhere along the line almost at will," American analysts believe.
The ISW recalled the warning of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, that there is a threat of Russian units advancing "deep into Ukrainian formations in uncertain areas of the front line."
"Ukrainian troops are probably trying to mitigate the problems caused by the lack of ammunition by prioritizing the distribution of ammunition in the areas of the frontline where larger-scale Russian offensives are underway. The lower intensity of Russian offensive efforts against sectors that are currently non-priority for Ukrainian forces in these areas is due to a lack of ammunition. The ISW continues to assess that Russian forces have the initiative in the theater and will be able to determine the time, place and scale of offensive operations as long as they maintain the initiative," they said.
The ISW believes that statements by Syrskyi and Ukrainian commands indicate that the intensification of Russian offensive operations in the area "could lead to a Russian breakthrough and destabilization of a previously stable section of the front line in a short time."
"Thus, the current front line is most likely not stable, and timely involvement of Ukrainian troops from the West is essential to prevent Russia from identifying and using an opportunity for a breakthrough in a vulnerable section of the front line," the Institute for War Studies concluded.
