The majority of Ukrainian citizens believe that the country will be able to defend itself and defend its independence even if the West is unable to provide assistance. This is evidenced by a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
The survey was conducted on KIIS's own initiative from November 29 to December 9 and is related to the delay in the US Congress' approval of the request for military aid to Ukraine and Israel for the next year.
The respondents were asked whether Ukraine would be able to succeed in the war if it had the support of the West and in a situation where such support no longer existed.
The vast majority (87%) of Ukrainians believe that if the West helps Ukraine with weapons, finance and sanctions, Ukraine will be able to defeat Russia. Only 7% of respondents believe that Russia is "too strong" regardless of the level of Western support for Ukraine, 6% have not decided.
The distribution of the poll results by region of Ukraine shows that this result only slightly depends on the respondents' place of residence. In the eastern regions, the share of those who are confident in Ukraine's success is 79% vs. 9%, and in the southern regions - 85% vs. 10%.
In case the West's support for Ukraine significantly decreases, respondents were asked to choose the most acceptable scenario of further events from two options:
The fighting stops. Ukraine retains control over the territories it currently controls, and the occupied territories are not officially recognized as part of Russia. The West provides Ukraine with serious security guarantees or even NATO membership. However, the liberation of the occupied territories is postponed for the indefinite future;
The fighting continues. Ukraine continues to try to put pressure on the Russians and look for weak points, preventing them from consolidating their power in the occupied territories. There is also an opportunity, albeit slowly, to gradually liberate the territories. But there is also a threat to the territories currently controlled by Ukraine.
58% of respondents believe that even in the event of a significant reduction in Western assistance, Ukraine should put pressure on Russia, even taking into account the risks to the territories controlled by Ukraine.
The scenario of cessation of hostilities with serious security guarantees from the West is considered more acceptable by about a third (32%) of respondents. The remaining 10% were undecided.
The survey was conducted on KIIS's own initiative and at the expense of KIIS from November 29 to December 9 by phone calls to a random sample of numbers determined by computer (computer-assisted telephone interviews, CATI). A total of 1,031 respondents from all regions of Ukraine (except Crimea) aged 18 and older, who resided in the territories controlled by Ukraine until February 24, 2022, were interviewed.
