Experts at the Institute for the Study of War have noticed that Russians, including their President Vladimir Putin, have changed their rhetoric about the occupiers' offensive on Avdiivka and are "lowering expectations" about the invaders' advance. This was reported by ISW.
Experts note that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to reduce expectations of a significant advance of Russian troops around Avdiivka in Donetsk region.
During an interview with Russian state television, Putin stated that Russian troops are conducting "active defense" on the Avdiivka, Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia directions.
According to experts, Putin's characterization of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka as "active defense" rather than "active hostilities" may be an attempt to reduce expectations of a significant Russian advance.
"Russian forces are unlikely to make significant breakthroughs or cut off Ukrainian forces in the locality in the near term, and potential large-scale advances are likely to require a significant and sustained commitment of personnel and materiel," the report says.
Given this data, it is worth noting that Russian troops have continued offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka since October 15, but have not yet achieved further success amid a likely slowdown in Russian operations in the area.
The analysts' conclusion is that Russian forces are likely to continue offensive operations at this reduced pace in the near term and remain a threat to Ukrainian forces in the area. However, they are unlikely to achieve a decisive breakthrough or encirclement of Avdiivka.
The slowdown in Russian offensive operations may be the result of a temporary adjustment to the tactical situation, but the invaders may intensify their attempts to encircle Avdiivka in the coming days.
