The termination of the "grain corridor" will lead to the fact that the export of agricultural products from Ukraine in 2023 will be $2 billion less than it could be. At the same time, all products for export will be exported by other means next year.
Deputy Chairman of the NBU Serhii Nikolaychuk stated this at a briefing broadcast on YouTube.
"Our baseline forecast is based on the assumption that the 'grain corridor' will not function during martial law," he said.
At the same time, the NBU assumes that EU restrictions on the export of agricultural products "will be valid until September 15 and will not be extended."
According to the NBU's forecast, Ukrainian agricultural exporters will be able to export "all products intended for export" during the entire marketing year, i.e. from July of this year to June of next year. "We are talking about grains, oil, and other agricultural products," he said.
"Compared to the scenario, if we had a functioning grain corridor, the export of products in the second half of this year would be higher by approximately $2 billion," Nikolaychuk said.
Grain deal
We will remind, in the period from August 2022 to July 2023, the Black Sea Grain Initiative was active, which allowed food to be safely exported from the ports of Greater Odesa. At the same time, Russia withdrew from the agreement.
The European Union has already declared that it is ready to export almost all agricultural products from Ukraine through the "corridors of solidarity" after Russia's withdrawal from the "grain agreement".
