The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that Russia may launch offensive actions in the coming months, particularly in the spring.
Analysts note that Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive operation in the spring or early summer of 2023, which partially supports ISW's assessment that Russian forces could launch a decisive offensive in the coming months.
ISW also noted that Russia continues to deepen military and economic relations with Iran, seeking a mutually beneficial evasion of sanctions. On January 23, Chairman of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin met in Tehran with the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi in order to expand bilateral cooperation.
Ghalibaf noted that Moscow and Tehran should strive to strengthen ties in the financial, energy and raw materials sectors against the background of American sanctions, which, according to Volodin, brought the two countries closer. In addition, sources in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also speculated about further military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow.
ISW also writes that the Wagner group's over-reliance on recruitment from penal colonies appears to be increasingly affecting the PKK's fighting capacity. The head of the independent Russian human rights organization "Sitting Rus'" Olga Romanova said on January 23 that of the 50,000 prisoners recruited by "Wagner", only 10,000 are fighting on the front in Ukraine due to high rates of casualties, surrenders and desertions.
