Russia may concentrate a possible large-scale offensive in late spring or summer in the west of Donetsk region. Experts added that Russian troops will be able to advance on only one operational direction. This was reported by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Russian command may concentrate its offensive in late spring or summer 2024.
Ukrainian officials have recently warned that the occupiers are amassing personnel along the Kharkiv-Luhansk direction, as well as in the areas of Avdiivka and Bakhmut in the west of Zaporizhzhia region. ISW experts continue to estimate that Russian forces are likely to be able to launch a coordinated large-scale offensive in only one operational area due to planning and limited human resources.
The report indicates that Ukrainian forces appear to have repelled a Russian battalion mechanized attack near Avdiivka on March 30. This is the first such attack since Russian forces launched a campaign to capture the city in late October 2023.
Russian forces, according to the report, involved 36 tanks and 12 armored infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). They organized a large-scale mechanized assault near Tonenke on March 30.
Ukrainian forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight IFVs during the assault. The frontal attack failed to break through the Ukrainian front line.
This is a positive indicator that the Defense Forces can defend themselves against future large-scale Russian attacks and an expected Russian offensive in the summer of 2024. According to analysts, Ukraine's ability to defend itself against the March 30 offensive, especially near Avdiivka, where Ukrainian troops were forced to quickly retreat to new defense positions after losing the settlement.
The Russian military command has been reported to be ready to engage a battalion of tanks in the offensive near Avdiivka. Such actions indicate that this offensive is a priority for the Russians.
