Alexander Lukashenko is likely to continue giving Russian troops access to Belarusian airspace in order to demonstrate at least nominal support for Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is reported by the American Institute for the Study of War.

Oleksiy Gromov, deputy chief of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said July 7 that the Belarusian government gave Russia the use of an airfield in the Gomel region.

The Hajun Project, an independent Belarusian monitoring organization, similarly reported July 11 that a Russian airborne warning and control system aircraft flew into Belarusian airspace for the first time since April 4.

The Hajun Project noted that the Belarusian government had imposed new airspace restrictions along the border with Ukraine, where the AWACS aircraft patrolled between July 10 and 11. Taken together, these findings likely indicate that Lukashenko is trying to support Putin's war in Ukraine without direct Belarusian military intervention in an attempt to respond to the pressure Putin is likely exerting on him.

As ISW has previously assessed, the likelihood of direct Belarusian involvement in the war in Ukraine remains low because of the impact it could have on the stability and even survival of the Lukashenko regime.

Key Findings

Russian forces conducted limited and unsuccessful ground offensives northwest of Slov'yansk and west of the city of Donetsk.

Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes near Seversk and Bakhmut.

Russian forces conducted localized ground assaults northwest of Kharkiv.

Russian forces continued to focus on defense operations along the entire Southern Axis.