In February 2022, the hryvnia may continue to decline if geopolitical risks persist. By the end of the month the dollar may trade in the range of 30.1-30.7 UAH, the euro - in the range of 32.8-33.5 UAH.
This was said by Vadim Iosub, senior analyst at Alpari, RBC-Ukraine.
According to his data, in January among the currencies of the former Soviet Union, the hryvnia showed the maximum decline against the dollar, the second and third place in decline are the Russian and Belarusian ruble.
"The main reason for the weakening of the hryvnia remains the tense geopolitical situation on the border with Russia," he said.
At the same time, he noted that a deeper decline of the hryvnia was prevented by the National Bank, which raised the discount rate from 9% to 10% per annum on January 21. The regulator's decision is explained by the fact that "implementation of a significant number of pro-inflationary risks requires tightening of the NBU's monetary policy to improve inflation expectations and ensure a steady decline in inflation to the target of 5%.
In January, the hryvnia declined against both the dollar and the euro for the third month in a row, with the rise in the dollar being stronger.
According to official rates set by the NBU, during a month the dollar rose from 27.2782 to 28.7839 UAH (+5.5%). EUR exchange rate for the same time increased from UAH 30.9226 to UAH 32.0293 (+3.6%). Stronger increase of US dollar against Euro is connected with decrease of Euro against dollar on the world currency market. Within a month the EURUSD currency pair decreased from 1.1340 to 1.1130 (-1.8%).
Recall, the Head of the NBU Kyrylo Shevchenko stated that the situation on the Ukrainian financial market in early 2022 is difficult, but not critical. According to him, the scale of the shock is less than in March 2020.
It should be noted that since the beginning of 2022, the National Bank of Ukraine has sold 1.5 billion dollars to balance the currency market. At the same time, the NBU is not going to repeat the mistakes of the past and keep a fixed exchange rate.
