Trent Moll, director of analysis at the US Defense Intelligence Agency, said that after three months of slow progress, Ukraine's counteroffensive is beginning to gain momentum. He noted that Ukrainian troops have managed to break through the first of three Russian defense lines in the South, near the village of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia region, and are now advancing further, The Economist reports.
Trent Moll emphasized that although the situation looked pessimistic a few weeks ago, the Ukrainian breakthrough on the second line of defense was significant.
"If we were talking about this two weeks ago, I would have been a little bit more pessimistic. Their breakthrough on the second line of defense... is actually quite significant," said Moll.
He also addressed the criticism that US officials have privately expressed about Ukraine's military strategy, especially the deployment of experienced units in the east, around Bakhmut, instead of the key area in the south. However, he emphasized that ammunition supplies and weather conditions were more important factors.
According to a Biden administration official, Ukraine has six to seven weeks of active fighting left before the offensive reaches its peak. There is disagreement about the expected progress during this time, but Trent Moll emphasized that Ukraine's recent successes give it a realistic opportunity to break through the remaining Russian defensive lines by the end of the year with a 40-50% probability.
"If Ukraine is able to expand the front around Robotyne, hold its positions and continue the flow of ammunition, it will have good opportunities for a new breakthrough in 2024," the publication quoted the analyst as saying.
