Peace talks regarding Ukraine will be held in Saudi Arabia this week. As expected, in addition to Western allies, delegations from developing countries will take part in them, and the main topic will be the Ukrainian peace formula.
Date, place and composition of participants
The American newspaper The Wall Street Journal was the first to report on the summit in Saudi Arabia. According to her, the meeting will be held on August 5 and 6 in Jeddah - the second largest city and economic capital of Saudi Arabia.
It is expected that representatives of 30 countries will take part in the peace talks regarding Ukraine.
"This comes amid a growing struggle between the Kremlin and Ukraine's Western supporters for the support of major developing countries, many of which are neutral on the war in Ukraine," the WSJ writes.
The publication, citing sources, notes that the summit will be attended by representatives of the leading countries of the European Union, the United States, as well as India, Brazil, Turkey and South Africa. The day before, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic confirmed that the meeting will be held in Jeddah, and Prague will be determined by the level of representation from its side. And today, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran announced its support for Saudi Arabia's peace initiatives.
As the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, said, the summit is planned at the level of advisers to the leaders of the participating countries.
What will be discussed in Jeddah
According to Yermak, the participants of the summit will discuss the implementation of the Ukrainian peace formula.
"We plan to talk about the ten main points of the peace formula, the implementation of which will ensure not only peace for Ukraine, but also create mechanisms for countering future conflicts in the world," said the head of the OP.
He also emphasized that each point of this formula is being discussed in various formats with representatives of more than 50 countries. The Ukrainian side insists that its plan should be taken as a basis, but in the process of consultations it is ready to take into account any opinions that do not contradict the key principles of international law and the provisions of the UN Charter.
Yermak draws attention to the fact that a three-phase structure is used to implement the peace formula:
- the first phase - meetings with ambassadors devoted to a detailed consideration of each of the points of the peace formula
- second phase - Ukraine initiates meetings of national security advisers to find optimal formulations and mechanisms for implementing the peace plan
- The third phase will be the founding Global Summit at the level of the leaders of the states, which could take place before the end of the year.
The main thing is about the peace formula
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyі presented a 10-step peace formula back in November 2022. In general, the plan provides for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and compensation for the damage caused.
Ten points of the peace formula:
- radiation and nuclear safety (immediate return of Zaporizhzhya NPP to Ukrainian control)
- food security (smooth operation of the grain agreement with extension to all Black Sea ports)
- energy security (restriction of prices for Russian energy resources and protection of Ukrainian facilities by air defense/anti-missile defense)
- the release of all prisoners and deportees
- compliance with the UN Charter and restoration of territorial integrity of Ukraine
- withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities
- restoration of justice (establishment of the Special Tribunal for Russian Crimes and Compensation for Damages)
- countering ecocide
- preventing escalation (providing security guarantees to Ukraine)
- recording the end of the war (signing a multilateral peace treaty)
The Ukrainian peace formula found support among Ukraine's partners and allies. In particular, its implementation is supported by the European Union, its members such as Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Finland and the Baltic states, as well as Great Britain, the USA, Canada, Japan and a number of other countries.
It should be noted that the resolution in support of the peace formula was put to the vote of the UN General Assembly in February 2022. Then it was supported by 141 countries, 32 more abstained - Armenia, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan and others.
As expected, the Russian Federation and its satellites - Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Syria, Nicaragua and Mali - opposed Zelenskyi's formula.
Not a new format
As Andriy Yermak notes, the summit in Jeddah is not a new format, since the first meeting at the level of national security advisors was hosted by Copenhagen on June 25.
Talks with political advisers from more than 10 countries were reported at the time. In addition to Ukraine, they were attended by representatives of Brazil, Great Britain, Denmark, the EU, Italy, India, Canada, Germany, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, the USA, Turkey, France and Japan.
The next day, information appeared in the Western media that it was not just a meeting, but a peaceful conference. And the participation of India, Brazil and South Africa suggests that the main goal was to study the support of the countries of the Global South, which still remain neutral or cautious about Russia's war against Ukraine.
At the same time, the German TV channel ARD noted that official negotiations could take place in July. But considering everything, the August summit in Jeddah will be the same official part.
As WSJ writes, at the meeting in Copenhagen, there was a significant gap in views on the peace plan between Ukraine and most developing countries. In particular, representatives of Kyiv pushed them to support Zelenskyi's formula. But this group has made it clear that it is open to discussing general principles, but will not subscribe to a peace formula.
"There will be no Russia at the summit, which avoids serious talks about peace and adheres to maximalist demands for any settlement. This is happening as the war seems to have reached a dead end," the newspaper writes.
At the same time, the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmytro Peskov, made it clear that the Kremlin will closely follow the meeting, although he does not yet understand "what goals are set and what will be discussed." He also emphasizes that there are no prerequisites for negotiations with Ukraine yet.
However, the summit in Jeddah, the WSJ claims, is capable of further consolidating international support for Ukraine, as many of the participants still adhere to neutrality.
At the same time, Ukrainian and Western officials hope that all this will eventually lead to a Global Summit at the end of the year, which will be the culmination of peace efforts. At it, world leaders will sign general principles regarding the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war. It is expected that they will become the basis of Ukraine's future negotiations with Russia.
Why Saudi Arabia?
The WSJ publication, citing Western diplomats, writes that Saudi Arabia was chosen as the venue for the summit to attract Chinese representatives. Despite the existence of an alternative "peace plan", Beijing was not represented at the meeting in Copenhagen. The participation of his delegation in the summit in Jeddah is currently not expected, but it is not excluded.
The Associated Press agency emphasizes that Saudi Arabia, which has significantly strengthened its ties with Russia in recent years, traditionally pursues a cautious foreign policy.
It should be noted that in May 2023, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi attended the summit of the League of Arab States in Jeddah, where he appealed to support the peace formula. Following the visit, the Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs emphasized that his country chose active neutrality.
The authorities stressed that the neutral position had already helped to exchange prisoners of war between Ukraine and Russia. And Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman declared his support for international peace efforts and readiness to act as a mediator.
Based on this, it is clear that the upcoming summit will help to increase the international authority of bin Salman, who seeks to achieve detente in relations with Iran and peace in the long-term war in Yemen.
It should be noted that recently it became known that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are secretly cooperating on the return of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russia. According to the Financial Times, corresponding lists are being drawn up in Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
"The highly sensitive negotiations, which have been going on for several months, indicate that third parties are still looking for ways to reach compromises between Ukraine and Russia, hoping that they can become channels for potential peace talks aimed at ending the war," the FT wrote.
Saudi Arabia also raised this issue at meetings with representatives of the G20 countries. According to the interlocutor of the newspaper, since the issue is very sensitive and "no one trusts anyone", an independent mediator is needed, which may well be Riyadh.
The summit is against the background of negotiations on security guarantees for Ukraine
Negotiations on security guarantees for Ukraine will also begin this week. First of all, with the United States.
"Ukraine will start negotiations with the United States on a bilateral agreement on the provision of security guarantees. These guarantees will be valid until Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, which is the most reliable guarantee of security," the head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, said the other day.
This is a continuation of the declaration of the G7 countries, agreed on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius, held in mid-July. According to Yermak, more than 10 other participants joined the document. Today, the Ukrainian side works with each of the partners through bilateral agreements.
Security guarantees will represent concrete and long-term commitments on the part of the Allies. They will make it possible to ensure the victory of Ukraine right now, as well as deter Russian aggression in the future. It is about obligations to provide military and financial support, as well as about sanctions and punishment of the Russian Federation for an aggressive war.
Currently, there is no information about where and how exactly the negotiations will begin. But it is obvious that the Saudi platform could become convenient for the start of the discussion of security guarantees both with the United States and with other partners.
