ISW analysts believe that the game between Putin, Lukashenko and Prigozhin is not over yet. It is still ongoing and will have both short-term and long-term consequences that may benefit Ukraine.
Analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War also pay attention to the words of the head of the Russian Guard, Viktor Zolotov, that they should receive heavy weapons and tanks. Now the Kremlin is trying to solve the security problems of the regime, which appeared on June 24, 2023.
How the situation with the Wagnerites will affect Ukraine
Analysts explain that the transfer of heavy military equipment of the Russian Guard for internal security will "tie up" weapons that the occupiers could otherwise use on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Also, ISW recalls that on June 27, the Ministry of Defense of Russia reported that PVK "Wagner" began to prepare heavy military equipment for transfer to units of the Russian armed forces.
This shows that Russia seeks to disband units of the Wagnerites and integrate them into regular Russian units. After all, this can minimize the risk of any repeated attempts at mutiny by the Wagnerites.
The Kremlin's campaign to destroy Prigozhin's reputation and possibly disband the Wagner forces makes it less likely that Putin will announce a new round of reserve mobilization in the near future, ISW analysts said.
According to their data, Vladimir Putin is unlikely to aggravate the situation in Russian society with the extremely unpopular announcement of mobilization after Prigozhin's rebellion. Therefore, experts believe that the Kremlin's reaction to the consequences of Prigozhin's armed rebellion indicates more favorable conditions for Ukraine, if compared with the situation before June 24.
Prigozhin's last statements after the failed rebellion
On June 27, Lukashenko confirmed that Yevgeny Prigozhin had indeed arrived in Belarus. In particular, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus said that they can "recalculate" at their own expense.
However, Lukashenko denied the information that camps for Wagnerites are allegedly being built in the country. According to him, they were offered an abandoned part.
It also became known that the Russian occupiers who supported Prigozhin's rebellion were being liquidated. This is happening by order of Shoigu. It is known that the liquidation began on June 25-26 in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
