Putin's rhetoric during his speech on May 9 suggests that he is trying to prepare Russians for a "protracted war." This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War.
Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to use his Victory Day address to make any significant rhetorical changes, and instead repeated existing narratives, preparing for a protracted war and portraying Russia as successfully standing up to the entire West.
Thus, in his annual address in honor of the USSR's victory over Nazi Germany on May 9, Putin stated that "a real war has been waged against Russia", that Russia has repelled international terrorism and will continue to "protect" the people of Donbas.
However, Putin has yet to offer any concrete vision of how to get rid of the Russian military's failures in Ukraine or change the structure of the war. Instead, Putin used the speech to reinforce long-standing rhetoric aimed at preparing the Russian public for a protracted war in Ukraine, recalling World War II," the analysis reads.
In addition, it is noted that Putin sought to use the Victory Day celebrations to rally around him partners from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), many of whom are seeking to reduce their dependence on the Kremlin from February 2022.
"Putin emphasized the importance of the participation of CIS leaders in the event and repeated the Kremlin's standard rhetoric that Russia seeks a multipolar world order. The latest attempts to bring the CIS countries together were muted by the reluctance of several Central Asian leaders, who initially spoke against attending the Victory Day event." - emphasized in ISW.
Other non-Western countries have largely rejected the Kremlin's attempts to build a potential anti-Western coalition, especially China, given its growing distance from Russia.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that the reduction of Russian military power in Ukraine has probably made Russia less attractive to other states. So, much less military equipment than usual was demonstrated at the Victory Day events. ISW points out that all this showed the further degradation of the Russian army, despite the Kremlin's attempts in previous weeks to hide these facts by openly reducing the number of parades in the country.
The Institute for the Study of War noted that Russia wants to use the military parade to demonstrate its influence in Central Asia.