The Russians can regroup in the Bakhmut area and then intensify their attack on the city. And in the Zaporizhzhya region, the Russians are strengthening their defenses, preparing for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The situation in Luhansk and Kharkiv regions
On March 28, Russian troops continued ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatov-Kreminna line. The General Staff of Ukraine stated that Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Krokhmalny (20 km northwest of Svatovo), Kuzmyny (3 km southwest of Kreminnaya), Bilogorivka (10 km south of Kreminnaya), Verkhnyokamyansky (18 km south of Kreminnaya), Berestovo (30 km south of Kreminnaya).
On March 28, Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman for the Eastern Group of Forces of Ukraine, reported that 13 combat clashes took place on this line in the last day and that although Russian troops have concentrated some of their best troops in this area, they are experiencing a significant lack of armored vehicles.
The Ministry of Defense (MoD) of Russia announced that units of the Russian Western Group of Forces (Western Military District) disrupted the transfer of Ukrainian reserves to the northeast of Kupyansk in the area of Hryanikyvka (20 km northeast of Kupyansk) and Synkivka (7 km on northeast of Kupyansk).
Geolocation footage released on March 28 shows that Ukrainian forces have made limited advances in a wooded area near Dibrova, about 6 km west of Kreminnaya. The head of the so-called "DPR" Denys Pushylin said that Russian troops recently launched an unspecified offensive west of Kreminnaya in the direction of Liman.
Battles in Donbas
On March 28, Russian troops continued their offensive in the Bakhmut area and advanced within the city. Geolocation footage released on March 28 suggests that Russian forces may have advanced in southern Bakhmut and towards the Bakhmut City Market in the center of the city.
On March 27, a Russian military blogger said that Russian forces had established sufficient crossings over the Bakhmutka River and that the fighting in Bakhmut was increasingly moving to the western parts of the city. He also claims that Russian troops continued to advance south and east of Ivanovsky, but as of March 27 were unable to advance closer to the T0504 route.
The head of the so-called "DNR" Denys Pushylin said on March 28 that the Russian group of troops near Mayorsk (20 km southwest of Bakhmut) currently has no immediate order to attack. The General Staff of Ukraine reported that Russian troops were conducting unsuccessful offensives on Bakhmut itself, 11 km northwest of Bakhmut in the Orihovo-Vasylivka and Bohdanivka area, and 16 km southwest of Bakhmut in the Ivanivskyi and Ozaryanivka area. Serhii Cherevaty reported that 19 combat clashes took place in the Bakhmut region, 14 of them directly in Bakhmut itself.
A possible redeployment of Russian troops in the Bakhmut area. Cherevaty reported that over the past three days, the pace of Russian offensive actions in Bakhmut and its surroundings has decreased, and this may indicate the regrouping of Russian troops. ISW previously assessed that Russian forces may divert Russian forces and resources away from the Bakhmut area to intensify the offensive on Avdiivka, although Russian forces may decide to shift personnel and resources for offensive operations to Bakhmut after a potential realignment of their forces.
Russian forces may have to regroup around Bakhmut as Wagner's group continues to expand its pool of recruits, both during grueling battlefield assaults and as large numbers of convicts complete their six-month contracts and return to Russia .
Russian forces could regroup in and around Bakhmut and add a larger proportion of conventional forces to what was left of Group Wagner's contingent in the area. Such a Russian realignment would likely allow Russian forces to intensify offensive operations in and around Bakhmut and possibly secure more significant gains.
On March 28, Russian troops continued their offensive on the Avdiivka-Donetsk front line. The General Staff of Ukraine reported that Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensives near Avdiivka itself, Stepove (7 km northwest of Avdiivka) and within 27 km southwest of Avdiivka near Siverny, Pervomaiskyi, Nevelskyi, and Maryinka.
On March 27, the Russian "war corps" announced that Russian troops are trying to advance further west of Kamianka (5 km northeast of Avdiivka) in order to surround Avdiivka. On March 27, the spokesman of the Tavrian Defense Forces of Ukraine, Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, reported that Russian troops are considering the possibility of withdrawing the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Northern Fleet) and the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Army Corps, Western Military district) from the Avdiivka-Marinka district for replenishment.
The UK Ministry of Defense said on 28 March that the 10th Tank Regiment (3rd Army Corps, Western Military District) had likely lost a significant portion of its tanks while trying to encircle Avdiivka from the south in recent days. Parts of the 3rd Army Corps probably suffered significant losses during the counteroffensive actions of Ukrainian troops in the Kharkiv region in September 2022, and the formations deployed on the outskirts of the city of Donetsk may be the remnants of combat-ready parts of the 3rd Army Corps or other already degraded formations.
Pushylin stated that the units of the 1st Army Corps of the so-called "DPR", including the "Sparta" battalions, the "Somalia" battalions and the 11th regiment, are conducting assault operations in various directions in the Avdiivka area, but Russian forces are not close to Capture of Avdiivka. The Russian "military corps" shared the personnel of the 9th brigade of the so-called "DPR" (the former 9th regiment of the people's militia of the so-called "DPR"), which operated near Pervomaiskyi (11 km southwest of Avdiyivka).
The owner of the "Wagner" group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, denied Ukrainian information that his fighters were planning to redeploy to the Avdiyivka area, and stated that they had never fought in the area, although the obituary of the experienced "Wagner" fighter claims that the fighter died in the Avdiyivka area.
On March 28, the Russians did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in the western part of Donetsk region. Pushylin claimed that positional battles are taking place near Vugledar (30 km southwest of Donetsk) and that Ukrainian forces continue to conduct reconnaissance in the area.
Dmytrashkivskyi said that last week, Russian forces recently deployed two unspecified tank units and a special unit of the 98th Airborne (Airborne) Division to supplement units of the 155th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet. The 155th OMBr had previously suffered heavy losses during the offensive in the Vugledar area in early 2023, and Russian forces may be trying to rebuild the unit to resume the offensive on Vugledar.
The Russian military has reportedly reconstituted the 155th Marine Brigade as many as eight times, and it is unlikely that another reconstitution would result in the combat capability needed to resume offensive operations. On the other hand, the participation of limited units of the Airborne Forces can support the resumption of tactical offensive actions of a limited scale and duration.
"Southern Axis"
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces carried out localized shelling in the Zaporizhzya region. The Russian Ministry of Defense (Ministry of Defense) said that Ukrainian forces had unsuccessfully attempted to advance on unspecified Russian positions from Lukyanivskoe (approximately 32 km southeast of the city of Zaporizhzhya).
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Ukrainian forces tried to use the bad weather in the area to advance to the front line. Yevhen Balytskyi, the head of the occupation of the Zaporizhzhya region, said that Russian troops continue to repulse the attempts of Ukrainian scouts in the occupied Zaporizhzhya region.
Balytsky claimed that Ukrainian forces fired six HIMARS missiles at an educational institution in Melitopol on March 27, and the Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, said that Ukrainian forces had struck an area where Russian troops were concentrated in the city. Fedorov also reported on March 28 that an electric substation exploded in Fedorivka (approximately 17 km northwest of Melitopol) under unknown circumstances.
Russian troops continue to strengthen their positions in southern Ukraine, fearing a counteroffensive by Ukrainian troops. Balytsky claimed that in the fall of 2022, the Russian military command staffed the Russian regiments by 15% of their usual strength.
Balytsky noted that he could not assess how well Russian troops were prepared for the announced future Ukrainian counteroffensive, and stated that the hostilities would reveal the level of Russian training in the occupied Zaporizhzhya region. Satellite images also showed Russian troops digging new trenches along roads leading to northern Crimea.
It is reported that Russian troops have reduced the intensity of shelling in the Kherson region. On March 28, the head of the Joint Coordination Press Center of the Defense Forces of the South, Nataliya Gumenyuk, said that for the past three days, Russian troops have not fired at the Dnipro-Buzky estuary from the Kinburn spit due to bad weather conditions.
Humenyuk noted that Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots and artillery systems are undermining Russian logistics and forcing Russian troops to reduce their activity on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnieper.
We will remind that Serhiy Cherevaty stated that the number of clashes in Bakhmut has decreased in the last three days. However, at the same time, it is unlikely to be related to the fading offensive of the occupiers.
At the same time, on March 27, the Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled 62 Russian attacks in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiiv, and Marin directions. The fiercest battles continue for Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka.