A year after Russia invaded Ukraine, Xi Jinping's endorsement of Vladimir Putin has opened up an opportunity for the United States and its partners in the Pacific region to shore up a frayed relationship to Beijing's detriment. CNN writes about it.
In just the past few months, Japan has pledged to double its defense spending and purchase long-range weapons from the US; South Korea has recognized that stability in the Taiwan Strait is necessary for its security; The Philippines has announced new access rights to US bases and is talking about joint patrols in the South China Sea with Australia, Japan and the US.
"These may be the biggest initiatives, but they are far from the only developments that have increasingly isolated China in its own backyard, as it refuses to condemn the invasion of a sovereign country by its partner in Moscow, while maintaining military pressure on self-ruled Taiwan." , the message says.
Analysts say that all this probably would have happened without the war in Ukraine, but the war and China's support for Russia helped to "grease the rails for the implementation of these projects."
"Take the case of Japan, a country whose constitution limited self-defense forces after World War II. Now it is going to buy long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States, a weapon capable of striking Chinese territory."
"I have a strong sense of urgency that today's Ukraine can become tomorrow's East Asia," Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said at a major defense conference in Singapore last summer.
"The Japanese certainly paid attention to the situation in Ukraine, and this made them feel more vulnerable as a nation," says John Bradford, a senior researcher at the School of International Studies.
"Japan has been strengthening its defense posture for years. The situation in Ukraine has politically facilitated a key element of Kishida's new National Security Strategy, the expected next steps in this strengthening," Bradford said.
In the current environment, South Korea's leadership views Taiwan through the same lens.
"Peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are necessary for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, as well as for the security and prosperity of the region as a whole," Foreign Minister Park Jin recently told CNN.
Seoul fears that if US forces are drawn into some sort of conflict with China over Taiwan, South Korea will appear vulnerable to a nuclear-armed Kim Jong-un.
This has led to calls for South Korea to rely more on its own self-defense, including some calling for it to have its own nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, Seoul and Tokyo are cooperating more closely on defense issues, including joint naval exercises with the United States.
The Philippines is in talks with the US, Australia and Japan on joint patrols in the South China Sea, where China has occupied islands also claimed by the Philippines. And last month, Manila agreed to give Washington expanded access to military facilities in the archipelago.
Former President Rodrigo Duterte was not a fan of Washington and sought ways to work with Beijing. But China has never particularly appreciated that, and his successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has shown a willingness to work with the United States and its allies, analysts say.
"Beijing's ongoing intimidation, as we saw in the case of China's coast guard blinding Philippine coast guard sailors with a laser, has only served to make the case for a stronger alliance with Washington," said Blake Herzinger, a defense policy expert at the Indo- Pacific American Institute of Entrepreneurship.
According to analysts, China's pressure on the Philippines has consequences on the opposite side of the South China Sea.
"Singapore and Vietnam have become even more open to expanding the US presence in the region. They do not want China to dominate Southeast Asia."
But the war in Ukraine has not helped the Indo-Pacific Partnership, the informal Quad alliance of the US, Japan, Australia and India, according to analysts.
Unlike the other three members, India did not condemn Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
"When the US, Australia and Japan tried to condemn Russia in a joint statement, India refused ... India argued that the Quad only addresses the problems of the Indo-Pacific region, and since Russia is not in the region, this topic cannot be raised," said Derek Grossman , a senior military analyst at the RAND Corporation.
