Italian intelligence believes that the Russians now need an operational pause to prepare for a long war under Western sanctions.
This is stated in the report of the special services presented to the Italian Parliament, reports La Stampa.
"For the Russians, an operational pause is necessary for recovery and preparation for a long war. Moscow is trying to use this period of relative stagnation to restart the activities of the Russian military-industrial complex, which, while remaining significant from the point of view of production capacity, is beginning to feel the impact of Western sanctions," it says reports That's what we read in the annual Italian intelligence report to parliament presented today.
Also, according to Italian intelligence, there is a decrease in support for the war in Russian society.
"Although a significant part of the Russian population continues to support the work of the Russian leadership, thanks to the spread of propaganda in the mass media, there is a decline in consensus in public opinion polls, which is also evidenced by the number of people leaving the country," the annual report emphasizes.
Italian intelligence also expects Russia to continue cyberattacks and disinformation in NATO countries.
"Moscow will not stop interfering in the political dynamics and decision-making processes of NATO countries," Italian intelligence believes, "resorting even more than in the past to coercive and manipulative methods such as cyberattacks, disinformation, blackmail and the use of levers such as migration and energy, and the latter are doomed to lose relevance in view of the West's desire to find alternatives to energy dependence on Russia."
At the same time, according to Italian intelligence, the use of nuclear weapons by Russia is unlikely.
The document states that "the attention of national intelligence has increased regarding the risks of escalation associated with the continuation of the conflict, including the threat of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, which at the time of preparation of this report is assessed as unlikely."