Russia does not plan to end military operations in Ukraine and is still considering the possibility of resuming the offensive on Kyiv.
This is stated in the annual report of the Bureau for the Protection of the Constitution of Latvia (SAB), which performs intelligence and counterintelligence functions.
"According to our estimates, hostilities will continue at least throughout 2023...Russia's strategic goals have not changed, so it is likely to plan to resume a new offensive after a winter rest period. The Russian regime is still considering the possibility of resuming the offensive on Kyiv. The capture of Donbas will remain a minimal tactical purpose," the report says.
It is also noted that in order to win, Ukraine needs much greater military support from the West.
"Both Russia and Ukraine lack weapons and ammunition, so one of the most important factors influencing the further development of events will be the ability of both sides of the war to obtain or produce them as soon as possible," the report says.
According to the assessment of the Latvian intelligence service, there is currently a low probability of Russia using nuclear weapons, as this could lead to a more direct intervention of the West in the war and alienate such friendly countries as China and India from Russia.
"Nuclear weapons can be used if, in Putin's opinion, the existence of the regime is threatened. At least, there are no signs of this at the moment," the document states.