Russian Defense Minister Serhii Shoigu announced the reform of the army in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine, which could affect the course of hostilities in six months, provided the plan to increase Russian troops is implemented.
This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to analysts, these plans demonstrate Russia's intention to reform the armed forces to conduct large-scale combat operations with the use of conventional weapons in general, and not just for the current war against Ukraine.
Nominally, Russia can form new divisions, but it remains unclear whether Russia will be able to build enough forces to fully man them to doctrinal strength in an ongoing war.
Previously, Shoigu made statements about Russian military reforms that were never implemented, for example, in May 2022, when he called for the formation of 12 new units of the Western Military District (ZVO) and the recruitment of 100,000 reservists in August 2021.
Reform and expansion on the scale Shoigu envisions will not occur in time to significantly affect the war in Ukraine for many months, but it could change the balance of power in the period to 2024 and create the conditions for a much more serious military threat from Russia, including NATO.
Ukraine will probably have a window of opportunity until the summer and throughout the summer if the West provides it with the necessary support, analysts note.
Other key findings from ISW analysts
Putin may announce a second wave of mobilization in the coming days, perhaps as early as January 18.
The Russian Ministry of Defense is trying to increase the professionalism of the Russian armed forces and likely to test and improve the effectiveness of its chains of command down to the level of small units.
Several prominent voices in the pro-war media space seized on these recommendations to support further criticism of the Russian Defense Ministry.
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