Next year, a catastrophic drop in the birth rate in Ukraine is predicted, by 2030 the population may decrease to 35 million. This was stated by the director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after M.V. Birds of Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Ella Libanova.
"I dream that there will be 35 million of us by 2030. Unfortunately, this may not happen. Because the war continues, we are losing people due to excessive mortality. It is not only the dead, but also those who die due to stress, overload, low-quality food, insufficient medical care," Libanova said.
She assesses population losses due to the war and related migration processes as catastrophic.
In addition, according to Libanova, the low birth rate is affected.
"We don't fully feel it yet. But 2023 will be the year of a catastrophic drop in this indicator. Let's say, in order to have a simple restoration of generations, it is necessary for one woman to give birth to 2.13 - 2.15 children during her lifetime (on average) in 2021 In 2018, we had an indicator of 1.1. In 2022, it will be even less, but the reduction will not be catastrophic due to children born in the first half of the year, the demographer emphasized.
She considers migration to be another problem. After all, people who fled the war abroad are alive and there is hope that they will return. And the prospect of return will primarily depend on the duration of hostilities and the conditions that will develop after the war.
"The longer people stay abroad, the more they will adapt and try to stay there forever. In addition to the fact that the hot phase of the war will last longer, our infrastructure will be more destroyed - both industrial and social, primarily housing. If people have destroyed housing and if they do not have a job, they will have nowhere and why to return," Libanova explained.