Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to pressure Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to make concessions on Russian-Belarusian integration at an upcoming meeting on December 19 in Minsk, Putin's first meeting with Lukashenko in Minsk since 2019, and it is not yet clear whether Putin will be able to Lukashenka desired concessions, according to the December 16 report by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
"Putin's visit to Minsk may indicate that Putin is trying to create the conditions for what has recently been assessed as the most dangerous course of action: a renewed offensive against Ukraine - perhaps northern Ukraine or Kyiv - in the winter of 2023... ISW's December 15 prediction of a potential "A Russian invasion of northern Ukraine in the winter of 2023 remains the worst-case scenario within the forecast cone. Currently, ISW rates a Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus as low but possible," the summary reads.
Analysts emphasize the low probability that Belarusian forces will invade Ukraine without a Russian strike group.
"It is far from obvious that Lukashenko will send Belarusian troops to fight in Ukraine even together with Russian troops. There are still no signs that Russian forces are forming a strike group in Belarus," ISW emphasizes.
At the same time, it is reported that Russian Defense Minister Serhiy Shoigu and Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin signed a document on the further strengthening of bilateral ties in the field of security - probably in the context of the creation of the Union State of the Russian Federation and Belarus and increasing Russian pressure on Belarus from in order to further support the Russian invasion of Ukraine
"A meeting between Putin and Lukashenko will, at a minimum, advance a separate Russian information operation aimed at breaking Ukraine's will and the West's willingness to support Ukraine. This meeting will reinforce a Russian information operation aimed at convincing Ukrainians and Westerners that "Russia can attack Ukraine from Belarus. Russia's sustained strikes on Kyiv, ongoing troop transfers to Belarus, and ongoing belligerent rhetoric are part of this information operation," the report said.
At the same time, ISW is convinced that the Kremlin is unlikely to break the will of Ukrainians to fight and is probably trying to convince the West to recognize as a false fact that Ukraine cannot significantly change the current front line and that the war has actually reached a dead end.
"Such a conclusion is inaccurate and that Ukraine has a good chance of recovering a significant critical territory in the coming months," the document emphasizes.