In the intelligence of Great Britain, it is still considered unlikely that a new invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus in connection with the formation of a joint grouping of troops with the Russian Federation is unlikely.
This is stated in the review of the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain about the war in Ukraine for October 21.
It recalls that in mid-October, Oleksandr Lukashenko announced the deployment of a group of 70,000 Belarusian and up to 15,000 Russian troops, and later Minsk published a video showing the arrival of Russian troops.
"However, as of now, it is unlikely that Russia has already transferred a significant number of additional troops to Belarus. The Russian Federation is unlikely to be able to assemble such a number of combat-ready formations due to the fact that its forces are already deployed in Ukraine. The Belarusian army, rather minimal ability to carry out complex operations. Therefore, these announcements may be an attempt to demonstrate Russian-Belarusian unity and convince Ukraine to withdraw more forces to defend its northern borders," the review notes.
In an October 20 review, British intelligence said that Russia's top leadership is seriously thinking about retreating from the right-bank bridgehead in the Kherson region, but given the destroyed bridges, it will be a difficult task.
