The American Institute for War Research has suggested in a new report that Putin could use nuclear weapons to deter a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the occupied territories.
Following the annexation of the occupied territories, Putin could directly or indirectly claim that Russian doctrine authorizing the use of nuclear weapons to defend russian territory applies to the newly annexed territories.
Such actions threaten Ukraine and its partners with a nuclear attack if Ukrainian counteroffensives to liberate Russian-occupied territory continue. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons will renew Russia's deterrence.
Ukraine and its Western partners may reduce their ability to support a Ukrainian counteroffensive in Ukraine's occupied territories before the Kremlin annexes them.
