Moldovan investigative journalists, in cooperation with the publications of 10 other European countries and the USA, learned about the Russian strategy of influencing the country, which was apparently developed in the Kremlin about two years ago.
Extensive materials on this topic were published by the Dossier center and RISE (Moldova).
The "Kremlin Strategy" was also awarded to a wide consortium of journalists - the Estonian edition of Delfi, the Ukrainian publication Kyiv Independent, the Belarusian Investigative Center, Yahoo News (USA), three German mass media - Süddeutsche Zeitung, Westdeutscher Rundfunk and Norddeutscher Rundfunk Central Europe VSquare.
The resulting document is called "Strategic goals of the Russian Federation in the Republic of Moldova" and was drafted back in 2021. Investigators note that an attempt to implement a number of points from it in recent years could be seen in the public narrative of some Russia-oriented police forces.
It is believed that the document was prepared in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation regarding border cooperation - the same one where the plans for the absorption of Belarus - in cooperation with special services and the General Staff. The source who gave the plan to journalists is completely confident that the document is authentic.
The strategy defines 2030 as the "deadline" for taking Moldova under political control and distancing it from Western partners.
The strategy has three main directions - military-political, economic and humanitarian. The goals are defined as: 1) countering the influence of NATO and the EU on Moldova; 2) involving Moldova in the CSTO and other international projects under the auspices of the Russian Federation; 3) "settlement of the Transnistrian conflict" through the mediation of Russia on the basis of the special status of Transnistria; 4) strengthening of pro-Russian sentiments in society through informational influence and educational programs, opposition to "Romanization".
It follows from the document that there were no plans for military intervention in Russia at that time - the main goal was to put pressure on Moldova over the Transnistrian issue.
The Kremlin's plans included supporting pro-Russian political forces in Moldova and exploiting the country's dependence on Russian imports, particularly gas, to achieve political goals. For the latter, it was planned to preserve the existing volumes of gas supply. The Kremlin expected to maintain significant volumes of exports of Russian goods to Moldova and to lobby the interests of enterprises from Transnistria and the Gagauzia autonomy, where pro-Russian sentiment is very strong.
In order to expand its informational influence, the Russian Federation wanted to prevent restrictions on its resources (which ultimately failed, as the Moldovan authorities closed six TV channels in 2022), as well as to create a network of public organizations loyal to itself, such as the Moldovan-Russian Business Union, founded by ex- President Ihor Dodon.
It was planned to "discredit NATO" among the residents of Moldova until 2025. The same medium-term goal was defined as "opposing the expansionist policy of Romania in Moldova."
By 2030, the Kremlin expected to increase the number of Russian mass media, preserve the status of the Russian language as the language of international communication, and "reduce the presence of the currency of third countries" in settlements with Russia.
"The goal is not to sneakily annex the country, but to strengthen pro-Russian influence in Moldova, primarily to prevent pro-Native, pro-European tendencies. The Kremlin sees Moldova more as a Russia-oriented buffer than part of the Russian empire. As with Georgia, it is more about to put a "stop" sign for the West and prevent the country's accession to the EU and NATO in every possible way," the interlocutor from Moldova's intelligence commented to journalists.
With the help of the document, the journalists identified two more people who are probably Russian "curators" for Moldova - in addition to the people who published a separate investigation in the fall of 2022.
The source who handed over the document claims that Andriy Vavilov from the Kremlin's Border Cooperation Office was the one who drew up the strategy. Vavilov is allegedly a graduate of the FSB academy and worked in the special service for about 10 years, and then moved to the Kremlin.
Another probable co-author of the document is Viktor Lysenko, deputy head of the Office for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries, where Vavilov also previously worked. His immediate superior is probably the deputy head of the AP of Russia Dmytro Kozak, with whom he has worked closely for about 10 years. Sources say that Lysenko "manually deals with Moldovan affairs". Billings of mobile calls received by the Dossier Center and RISE suggest that Lysenko regularly communicates with FSB General Dmitri Milyutin, who is the "curator of Moldova" from the special services. Between November 2021 and May 2022, they communicated openly at least ten times.