Depending on the length of the war, the number of poor people in Ukraine could nearly quadruple to 70 percent in 2022 from the prewar 18 percent, the World Bank predicts.
"The poverty and social consequences of war will be enormous. Modeling using the latest macroeconomic forecast shows that the share of the population with incomes below the actual poverty line (the national poverty line) could reach 70 percent in 2022, up from 18 percent in 2021," according to a new Economic Survey for the Europe and Central Asia region, War in the Region, released today.
According to the WB forecast, despite the support package, "the rate will still be above 60 percent until 2025."
"Based on the above-average international poverty line ($5.5 a day), the poverty rate is projected to rise to 19.8 percent in 2022, up from 1.8 percent in 2021, with an additional 59 percent of people at risk of falling into poverty," the forecast said.
It notes that the Russian invasion is causing serious economic and humanitarian damage, in the form of financial pressure on budgets, disruption of trade, displacement of millions of people and significant infrastructure damage with potentially long-term macroeconomic and social consequences.
In Ukraine, the WB expects a 45 percent GDP contraction and further weak recovery in 2022.
