Ukraine has recorded a sharp increase in demand for cash dollars in early November, pushing exchange rates above 47 hryvnias per dollar at some currency exchange offices. However, financial analysts say a rise to 50–60 hryvnias by the end of 2026 remains unlikely.
According to UNIAN, the volatility was driven by increased government spending, particularly in the defence sector, stronger demand for foreign currency among households, and reduced dollar sales by exporters.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said the foreign exchange market remained under control, stressing that there was no shortage of cash foreign currency in the banking system.
Taras Kotovych, a senior financial analyst at investment group ICU, forecasts the official exchange rate at approximately 45.8 hryvnias per dollar by the end of the year.
Financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn expects the dollar to trade within a range of 45.5–46.7 hryvnias, while Bank Pivdennyi also considers a sharp depreciation of the national currency unlikely.
Analysts identified continued international financial assistance, Ukraine’s foreign exchange reserves and central bank interventions as key factors supporting the hryvnia.
Despite expectations of relative stability, economists warn that persistent defence spending, wartime economic pressures and strong demand for foreign currency could contribute to a gradual weakening of the hryvnia in the coming months.
