The Economist: Ukraine's population will shrink to 25 million in just 14 years

The full-scale war, mass emigration, frontline losses, and record-low birth rates are deepening the demographic crisis in Ukraine. According to UN projections, if the situation does not change, only about 25 million people may remain in government-controlled territory by 2040. This was reported by The Economist.

The scale of demographic losses

The authors of the publication note that since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, the population in Kyiv-controlled territory has decreased from approximately 37 million to 27–28 million. The vast majority of this demographic loss is due to refugees and those remaining in the occupied territories, where an estimated 3–5 million Ukrainians still reside.

Forced emigration is having a particularly significant impact on demographics. More than 5 million Ukrainians live abroad, predominantly in European countries. Furthermore, fewer and fewer refugees plan to return home: according to the Center for Economic Strategy, 74% intended to do so at the end of 2022, compared to just 43% now.

Critically low birth rate

According to demographers, mobilization, combat losses, and uncertainty are forcing many Ukrainian couples to postpone having children.

The statistics are alarming: while in 2020 there was an average of 1.2 children per woman in Ukraine, this figure has now dropped to just 0.8–0.9. For stable population reproduction, a rate of 2.1 is required.

The government is attempting to curb the decline in birth rates through financial incentives. A new law provides for a payment of 50,000 hryvnias for the birth of a child and a monthly allowance of 7,000 hryvnias during the first year. The state also funds infertility treatments, and military personnel can freeze eggs or sperm free of charge. However, experts doubt that such measures will significantly improve the situation during the war.

Post-war perspectives

Following the end of the war, attracting foreign workers could become one possible way to overcome the population deficit. According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Ukraine already lacks about 2.5 million workers. Deputy Minister of Economy Dariia Marchak notes that attracting foreigners will only be considered after maximizing the potential of Ukrainians both inside the country and abroad.

At the same time, as The Economist highlights, even the end of the war does not guarantee rapid demographic recovery. The generations born in the 1990s and 2000s are the smallest in the modern history of Ukraine, making a large-scale post-war surge in birth rates highly unlikely.