The Kremlin is trying to use nuclear threats to deter Western military aid to Kyiv in the face of an armed counteroffensive.
This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts noted that on April 4, Russian Defense Minister Serhii Shoigu justified the decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, accusing NATO of intensifying combat training and reconnaissance near the borders.
"Shoigu reinforced the existing Russian nuclear threats, stating that Belarus has nuclear attack aircraft and Iskander-M nuclear missiles, and added that on April 3, the Belarusian missile forces began training to work with the Iskander-M complexes, in particular, with the use of tactical nuclear weapons." , the report says.
The ISW points out that Shoigu's speeches do not contain new information about the Belarusian exercises and are part of an information operation.
"The revitalization of Shoigu's nuclear blackmail rhetoric coincides with Finland's accession to NATO and a new package of aid to Ukraine from the United States," the experts emphasized.
By the way, the Institute for the Study of War continues to assess that the risk of nuclear escalation remains extremely low and that Russia's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is unlikely to affect the realities of hostilities in Ukraine.
In addition, the nuclear weapons deployed by the Kremlin in Belarus will almost certainly remain under the control of Russian personnel permanently stationed there.
ISW Key Findings:
The Kremlin will try to force Belarus to further integrate into the Union State when Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko meet in Moscow on April 5-6.
Evgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the "Wagner" Communist Party of Ukraine, showed his response to the murder of the Russian media blogger Maksym Fomin, indicating that he most likely considers the attack to be partly directed against himself.
The Kremlin continues to try to reassure the Russian public that the war in Ukraine will not have significant long-term economic consequences.
The Kremlin is trying to shift more responsibility for the development of Russian industry to regional bodies in order to insulate itself from possible criticism about the worsening economic situation in Russia.
Russian troops conducted limited ground attacks on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian troops continued their offensive in the Bakhmut area and on the Avdiyivka-Donetsk front line.
Shoigu said that the current spring draft cycle in Russia is going according to plan.
Belarusian state media reported that the Belarusian State Security Committee arrested two men on suspicion of an attempted terrorist attack in Grodno.
It will be recalled that Putin announced his intention to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. The world has already reacted to the dictator's statement.
The EU pointed out that the transfer of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus poses a threat to European security.
