The National Bank of Ukraine has downgraded the assessment of the impact of Russian missile attacks on the energy infrastructure on Ukraine's economy. A significant capacity deficit is possible. This was stated by the head of the NBU Andriy Pishnyi at a briefing.
As Pyshnyi noted, in the NBU's October forecast, the effect of shelling was "predicted as temporary inaccessibility", but it was expected that access to the moral infrastructure could be restored as quickly as possible.
"Compared to October, the risk of periodic mass attacks on the energy infrastructure has increased. The likely scenario is a more significant than expected shortage of transmission and generating capacities," he said.
Pyshnyi said that several scenarios are currently being considered, noting that it is quite difficult to make an accurate prediction in this situation.
The first scenario is an operational update. "This scenario includes the continuation of energy terror, but rather successful protection of Ukraine's airspace and critical infrastructure facilities... as well as prompt restoration of damaged facilities. Actually, this is the situation we saw with you this week," he said .
According to him, the deficit of electricity in this scenario should not exceed 25%.
"And we consider this scenario as the basic one," Pyshnyi said.
"The second scenario involves a deeper defeat of critical infrastructure. Actually, this is what we observed in the aftermath of the attack on November 23," the head of the NBU said, adding that in such a situation, the recovery time, cost and deficit increase.
The third scenario is large-scale interruptions in the power system. According to Pyshny, this scenario will have quite dramatic consequences for the economy. However, this scenario is perceived as less likely.
"In all three options, we have similar consequences: a decrease and deterioration of indicators of economic activity, higher inflation than predicted in the October forecast," said the head of the NBU.