Putin's decrees on the recognition of the DPR and LPR contain orders to the army to enter Ukrainian territory. According to experts, this means a military invasion by Russia.
"Recognition changes everything. And this is not Russia's defeat at the negotiating level. It is a strengthening of its position. She now on "legal" grounds introduces military aid there, will try to recapture the part of Donbass controlled by Ukraine. The probability of escalation has only increased," said Marina Zolkina.
According to Zolkina, already today the United States and the West should impose sanctions against Russia.
"Those sanctions that the U.S. has imposed are ridiculous. They announced sanctions against people who cooperate with the occupied territories. But it's just not relatable, such sanctions will not affect the Russian economy enough for them to stop the war," says political scientist Maria Zolkina of the Center for Democratic Initiatives.
"Putin will act cautiously - moving towards the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, he will pay attention to whether the West imposes sanctions, how these sanctions work," says Tatiana Ivanova.
According to Sergei Garmash, a member of the TGC's political subgroup, the West underestimates the threats that Putin voiced when he announced the recognition of the DNR and LPR.
"Putin spoke at length about Ukraine, then spoke at length about the West, accusing it of threatening Russia by allegedly helping Ukraine. And only at the end for a very short time did he talk about the DPR and LPR... I think the West needs to see this message. It is not Ukraine that is being declared war, but the West," said Sergey Garmash.
According to Sergei Garmash, that if sanctions are not imposed on February 21-22, it is necessary to get clear guarantees from the U.S. and Europe that sanctions will be announced when Russian soldiers enter Ukraine in any capacity - peacekeepers, temporary forces or in any other status.
"Mr. Biden said that if a single Russian soldier crosses the border into Ukraine, sanctions will follow. And if even one soldier, under the guise of a peacekeeper or in any other status, appears on the territory of ORDLO, I think that should be a reason to announce sanctions. And we should raise the issue with Mr. Biden and the U.S. in general. Great Britain, which has its own special position, different from continental Europe, could start today at least from its own position to impose sanctions," believes Sergei Garmash.
As frontnews reported, Tatiana Ivanova notes that the activities of the Trilateral Contact Group are over, and the Minsk agreements no longer apply. Sergey Garmash holds the same opinion: "Minsk agreements are over, the Trilateral Contact Group is over. But there is a vacuum - we have no one else to discuss the issue of prisoners? Our people are there, how do we get them out, who do we negotiate with?"
According to Garmash, Ukraine must respond relationally to Russia's actions.
"We've been running away from war for eight years and have only contributed to things getting worse. It's time for us to stop running away from the war, which is already going on. We need to recognize it officially, legally. And thereby prevent the West from imposing sanctions. Already everyone understands that Putin has declared war on Ukraine in order to destroy Ukrainian statehood. Therefore, Ukraine needs to take the initiative into its own hands: gather the Verkhovna Rada, declare mobilization, martial law, and put the economy on a war footing. Because there is nowhere else to run," said Sergei Garmash.
A reporter working in conflict zones and editor-in-chief of newcaucasus.com, Irakli Chikhladze, believes that Ukraine has three months' leeway to prepare for large-scale military action.
"The war will not start in the next three months. Russia has already outlined how it will implement its military actions: they will move from the occupied territories to the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. In order to do this, they will need to bring equipment, troops, and fuel to the ORDLO. In addition, they will need to reinforce the entire front line along which they are confronting Ukrainian forces.
As the experience in Georgia showed, it took them about a year to set up bases and reinforce the dividing line. In Ukraine, of course, they will work more quickly, but not less than six months," Irakli Chikhladze said.
Front News
Beslan Kmuzov
