Despite statements about the end of the exercises, Russia did not withdraw its troops from Ukraine's borders, but instead scheduled new exercises using missiles. At the same time, the situation escalated in Donbas, where separatists shelled a UNHCR convoy and the leader of the DPR announced the evacuation of the population. According to political scientist Stanislav Fedorchuk, Russia is forced to resort to more and more radical methods as it suffers defeat on the diplomatic field.
After Putin's meeting with the heads of state, and after assurances about the withdrawal of troops from the border, we are seeing shelling of Ukrainian territories. What does this mean?
It means that Putin failed to realize his intentions. In fact, we can see that he has lost: both the party with ultimatums to fold NATO, as well as from admitting Ukraine to the Alliance, and preparations for a meeting in the Normandy format, and he lost the blackmail of the international community with the recognition of the DPR-LPR. That is why he now simply wants to provoke military action in Ukraine in order to use all those troops that have not yet withdrawn from the borders of the country.
Putin voiced the initiative to recognize the DPR and LPR at a meeting with Scholz, but noted that he intended to solve the problem in the format of the Minsk agreements. What is really going on?
Scholz's visit itself took place after his meeting with President Zelensky. And as far as I understand, Scholz's position, to a certain extent, had to be synchronized with the position of Ukraine's other strategic partners. What did we see at that press conference on February 15? Frankly, no matter what Putin said, there was no credibility to his words. That Putin acted as a propagandist is obvious.
First, he compared Russia's aggression against Ukraine to the war in Yugoslavia, for which there is no basis. There is not and never was a civil war on the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Undoubtedly, there were collaborators who supported Russian saboteurs, Russian occupation troops who became part of the occupation administration on a par with the Kremlin handlers. But to say that some Yugoslav scenario is happening in Ukraine, that there is supposedly some confrontation between ethnic, religious and other groups is nonsense.
The only confrontation that Vladimir Putin and his accomplices have organized on the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk regions is genocide against Ukrainians, this destruction of all people who do not agree with the Russian occupation, and here Vladimir Putin is another Skobeeva already in the presence of, in fact, Olaf Scholz. Frankly speaking, I do not fully understand why Olaf Scholz at this conference began to comment on the absolutely mythical withdrawal of troops from the Ukrainian border. We don't see any withdrawal of troops, and I think that Olaf Scholz was a bit quick to tell the world that de-escalation has finally begun.
Regarding the message that Olaf Scholz gave to Putin: First of all, Olaf Scholz said that the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics was a violation of the Minsk agreements and a de facto disaster. And in doing so, he admitted that Russia and Ukraine read the Minsk agreements differently.
Isn't the Duma's petition to Putin itself a violation of the Minsk agreements?
There is a petition to the tsar - from the State Duma to Vladimir Putin. It is not just a signal, it is, in fact, another aggressive step against Ukraine's sovereignty. I don't fully understand why Western partners and Ukrainian political representatives themselves are so lukewarm about this step. The very raising of the question of Ukrainian territories as parts of a sovereign state, which someone will recognize as separate, is already an act of aggression. And after this there is no point in talking about the validity of Minsk at all.
Because it is a unilateral withdrawal of Russia - precisely Russia - from Minsk, it is a rejection of diplomatic attempts at de-escalation. And as far as I'm concerned, the fact that the Russian leadership is taking such a step says only one thing: they've realized that Western blackmail is failing, that the West is consolidating, and they've realized that the Ukrainian political leadership is not ready to surrender its sovereignty in exchange for absolutely illusory security guarantees.
And I take it that Putin's adoption of this decision, if it happens, is primarily an attempt to pass off the situation as a victory for the internal user, for the citizens of the Russian Federation. Like, look, we recognized the so-called DPR and LPR, we helped our brothers. But in fact, we helped them very badly, because the occupied territories live much worse than the free part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions under Ukrainian control. They live with curfews, food shortages, a collapsed economy, and frankly, they live in poverty, in shambles, with a destroyed health care system. So to say that in some way Putin is the savior of some people from Donbas is ridiculous.
So it seems to me that if this happens, the Minsk process will be stopped, and Russia will be held accountable in a very different way, and I think that this should be the reason for new sanctions.
Is there any chance that Ukraine will be forced to sit at the negotiating table with representatives of the occupation authorities?
It seems to me that the West has no leverage over Ukraine to force us to give up our own sovereignty. I understand that within the confines of some Russian propaganda Ukraine is presented as some failed state that is ruled from Washington. In fact, for good or bad, the current political leadership of Ukraine determines its own foreign policy course, and there is no reason to say that someone from Washington or Brussels can force the Ukrainian leadership to communicate with Donetsk or Lugansk.
Sergey Garmash said that, contrary to Russia's aspirations, France and Germany supported Ukraine and pointed out that Russia was not fulfilling its obligations.
Garmash is right. We have to understand that France and Germany are in a difficult situation today. Despite the fact that both French and German businesses would like access to Russian gas and other plushies that cooperation with the Russian Federation provides, there is still an advisory position of the European Union, which says that it is necessary to resolve the issue of aggressive actions of the Russian Federation. And the fact that Russia is now losing the diplomatic field is obvious.
No doubt, when we talk about how to negotiate - whether from Macron's side or Scholz's - we understand that Macron has more capabilities and more experience. But we can see that even to those absolutely calm initiatives that Scholz and Macron put forward, Putin reacts extremely nervously. Because these initiatives do not fit into the extreme demands that the Russian Federation makes. Putin's problem is that he has issued so many ultimatums to the Western world - on security, enlargement, the structure of the Euro-Atlantic Union, Ukraine and everything else.
In other words, he now looks like a pure blackmailer. As far as I am concerned, this fascist policy of his has paid off, with even relatively pro-Russian countries - Germany and France - having to turn their backs on the Russian Federation and remember that they are not only representing their business interests, but also represent the sovereign countries of Central Europe.
I expected that Biden would have already initiated sanctions.
First of all, he said during his speech that there was no confirmation that Russian units were leaving their positions. This was also confirmed yesterday by Secretary of Defense Austin Lloyd. Secondly, the main thing in his speech is that he doesn't believe the Russian political leadership about the announced plans for de-escalation. In addition, it seems to me that Biden's point of view was balanced.
That is, he was not trying to claim any new things. On the contrary. He reiterated his old theses that Russian troops are on the border with Ukraine and that these are aggressive actions toward Ukraine. He said that Russia should choose the path of diplomacy, and the main point is that he emphasized that once Russia starts aggressive actions against Ukraine, the U.S. and allies will apply sanctions more serious than they have been until now.
It is Putin who can rattle weapons and make threats anywhere. And Biden, after all, represents a developed country in the Western world with a slightly different attitude to international politics and international security.
Is Ukraine ready to start military action if Russia recognizes the DPR and LPR?
We are actually in a different position: we are waging a defensive war.
Shall we say, will the liberation of the occupied territories begin?
Frankly speaking, under the current political leadership I do not believe in the possibility of planning an operation to liberate the occupied territories - neither Crimea, nor Donetsk and Luhansk. There is no reason to believe that such a political decision will be made. And without such a decision, the troops will not go forward.
So the only mechanism of deterrence is the threat of sanctions?
The threat of sanctions and, most likely, providing even more lethal weapons to Ukraine.
But if weapons are provided without the political will, there is no one to use them.
The question here is different: we must understand what we are dealing with. Russia is going all-in. It is raising the stakes as much as possible in order to show Ukraine and the world that they will not stop there and that they want more. It is not enough for them to occupy part of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, not enough to annex Crimea, they also need to bring the political leadership of Ukraine to its knees and actually force it to admit the failure of the European and North Atlantic policies. To admit that Ukraine will always be an ally and at the tail end of the Russian Federation. And all this is only because of one thing: The Russian political leadership has still not understood that Ukraine is not Russia.
Putin said that he intended to wait for a new meeting of the trilateral contact group, which is early March.
It is clear that this is another blackmail. He is stretching things out in terms of time.
After that, April 23rd is the French elections. Can we assume that they are planning to prolong the whole situation until May 13, and then wait for de-escalation?
The only thing I see is that there is no smell of de-escalation. That is, there are no signs that Russia will retreat now. Moreover, it seems to me that the negotiations in Normandy will bring even more problems. Yes, on the one hand, through all these diplomatic meetings, visits to Moscow, talks in Normandy, the OSCE, with the NATO Commission and so on - this to a certain extent hinders Putin in his aggressive plans against Ukraine. And, as we can see, the collective West is doing its best to tie Putin's hands at least a little bit with diplomatic methods that he cannot discard. He can't tell Scholz "don't come to me in Moscow."
On the other hand, we have been seeing over the past years what Russia has been doing in the TCG: blackmailing Ukraine, derailing negotiations. And if we talk about any progress, there is none. And not so much because Ukraine has a terrible, principled, firm position. But because the Russian negotiators are disrupting the process in all its forms. As soon as there is any hope for a constructive approach, Russia torpedoed it. Not a single prisoner exchange has taken place in two years. In two years, Russia has not opened a single checkpoint (entry-exit checkpoint). In other words, Ukraine has fulfilled all its promises made at the previous Normandy meeting.
Are there any obligations that Ukraine does not fulfill?
First and most importantly, as Scholz himself admits, Ukraine and Russia read the Minsk agreements differently. Ukraine says first - security, and then - political issues. Russia says "we have been spinning your security issues, we don't think security issues are a priority, let's solve the political issues first". This is the main difference in approaches. Russia wants to turn Minsk into an instrument of blackmail of the entire political elite.
And in fact, it undermines Ukraine's political system. And Ukraine sees the Minsk process as an instrument to return territory and population. That is the difference - the fact that the Russian Federation was not and is not going to return the stolen territories, nor to withdraw its occupation troops, nor to remove its occupation administration. Their plan is to legitimize these occupation authorities, to pretend that they were supposedly democratically elected. And in fact, to implement the occupied territories in the political field of Ukraine. So that, roughly speaking, the occupation administrations could influence the political life of Ukraine as a whole.
Are the constitutional changes somehow specified in the Minsk agreements?
That is the question, is there even a word in the Minsk agreements about constitutional changes in Ukraine. So the "wet dreams" of the Russian leadership that they can change the Ukrainian constitution with the help of their puppets will remain just wet dreams. And I think that the actions of the State Duma to initiate recognition are taking place because they have understood perfectly well that Minsk is not an instrument of influence on Ukraine as effective as they would like it to be.
And that neither Germany nor France - for all the friendly relations they have there - are capable of forcing Ukraine to give up its sovereignty, to refuse to comply with the constitution, and, in fact, with the principles of international law. Let us not forget that Minsk is an agreement adopted under military pressure from the Russian Federation. Therefore, Russia considers it a document of surrender, while Ukraine has used and is using the same document to negotiate the return of its territory, not to surrender its subjectivity, its independence.
Obviously, the Russian leadership is annoyed that the Ukrainian side is in no hurry to surrender its interests in the Minsk format.
If Putin still does not recognize the DNR and LNR and does not use military force, but instead simply calls the troops back to their barracks, how detrimental would this be to his authority in Russia itself?
It seems to me that Putin is a dictator, so he does not care what anyone on a global scale thinks, let alone the Russian Federation. Russia is not a democratic country. Therefore, any decisions Putin makes are driven by his personal desires, not by the logic of any external or internal political course. Therefore, the recognition or non-recognition of the DPR or LPR is a long game, an element of blackmail.
Since it does not work to blackmail with troops on the border, it has now resorted to blackmail with the recognition of the DPR and LPR. It seems to me that the probability that Putin will recognize the DPR and the LPR is quite high. Because this fully fits into the logic of blackmail, escalation of aggression, and allows Putin to say that, they say, here we have recognized these independent republics, and now we can introduce troops there in all seriousness, as it happened in the Abkhaz scenario. And now the situation is frozen for years, because the Ukrainian army on the line of contact will have to fight not with the collaborationist troops led by Russian officers, but with the regular troops of the Russian army already. This raises new questions for the coalition that has been formed around Ukraine over Russian aggression.
So it turns out that the only tool to deter Russia is sanctions?
It seems to me that, first of all, Putin is not very much afraid of sanctions, because, frankly, I still haven't heard what the "scaryness" of the sanctions that are now being prepared against Putin and his entourage is. I would be very happy to be wrong, but it seems to me that sanctions alone will not do. As we understand it, containment of Putin and his imperialist plans for the European continent can only happen in one way: when these countries have military capabilities, deployed troops, protection of their water space, land space, cyber space. And I think what's happening now is a surprise for Putin.
Because in creating tension with Ukraine, Putin is forgetting that there is more than just Ukraine and Russia on the globe. There are a large number of countries that are now forced to reconsider their attitude toward defense budgets, toward military alliances. And now we see that NATO and America, which has withdrawn from Europe (primarily Germany), are forced to urgently redeploy their combat units and reactivate their equipment, which means that, in fact, the West is now mobilizing in the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine.
It is no secret that Russia's aggressive intentions go far beyond Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and the Baltic States. We are all well aware that aggressive actions against Ukraine will end in unpleasant surprises for the entire European community, for the entire European continent. Now it is hard, with the creaking, consolidation, first of all, of military resources, including for the possible reflection of aggressive actions of Russia on the territory of the EU and NATO countries. That is why it seems to me that Putin was too quick to write off the US and the EU, thinking that he has too many corrupt connections and business interests in Europe to make the West capitulate and give Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and Georgia back into the fold of Russia, so that it can play its USSR 2.0 or Russian Empire 3.0.
