"The Syrian Sarajevo": whether Europe is capable to resist retraction in World War III?

  • The Syrian Sarajevo whether Europe is capable to resist retraction in World War III

BRUSSELS (FNI) - The aggravated military-political crisis between the USA and Russia around Syria develops according to the looks like accurate scenario, involves and will mobilize the whole world in military blocks. It is not interesting for professionals at all what next formal occasion-event will be offered for global media and politicians for justification of inevitable global war collision of great powers in 2018.

"The Syrian card" or new "Syrian Sarajevo" looks as it has been lost for reaction by the World peacekeeping and democratic community - the tragedy could not be averted. Counting of time around the beginning of military actions-war goes on days of the week and the movement of the aircraft carrier groups and the warning threatening statements of politicians become popular TV shows for mass global consumption. Even though it may sound cynically, but the tragic fate of the Syrian people looks predetermined and the peace for the peoples of the Middle East region isn't possible in principle in the next years. But Syria and the countries of the region aren't the main military objectives of global players.

It is important to understand that Syria is the first important step-occasion or the driving mechanism of processes in a chain of the events leading to global military collision. A number of system signs say that the World is purposefully involved in World War III. Syria is a working ideal model for global retraction of the countries and collision of interests, the beginning of "domino effect" for connection of other regions of the world in the global military meat grinder. Syria is "global gasoline station-recharger" where contradictory strategic decisions of the governments and building war coalitions are justified as well as new use of military force in the international affairs are filled with energy.

Experts note that opposite military blocks undergo process of the accelerated internal pre-war mobilization. The state national mechanisms in the sphere of management of national security and defense of the NATO countries are reshaped. The North Atlantic Alliance is in an expedited manner transferred to military rails for real global war. On the example of Syria, among the countries of NATO negotiations on real inclusiveness of member states in the attacking military coalitions were actively developed and conducted. NATO has announced Russia the main threat of the Alliance therefore the main fighting concentration of troops and strengthening of groups is conducted on perimeter of eastern frontiers of the countries of NATO with Russia. Syria is a ground of combat readiness and maturity of fighting interaction within Alliance for final preparations.

The countries of NATO are in a speedy manner transfer from state management model for consumption societies during peace to crisis-military model. In the USA Donald Trump's Administration, there are replacements of not so long ago appointed moderate heads of strategic management in Agencies, who deal with international affairs, defense and security, by real "hawks". Recently, the U.S. Secretary of State and the National Security Adviser to the U.S. President have been replaced with "hawks".  Statements of leaders of states, diplomats and heads of military blocks become Hawkish. The whole process gains irreversible character and the USA set fashion-example in this sphere to other countries of NATO. Collective war schizophrenia becomes norm of the day.

Growth of the global military conflict around Syria is modern geopolitical and military classics for application of "hybrid wars" of new generation. Hybrid wars (qualitative combat program, complementary set of military, diplomatic, sanctions, intelligence, cultural and religious, propaganda information-misinformation means for striking a blow on the enemy and modern warfare) gain global character, and World War III will also have substantially hybrid character. Understanding of these hybrid wars have the specific language to understand only for professionals due to composed of a multistoried levels for understanding.

For example, the statement of the President Trump on April 11 that the USA will launch missile attack against Syria can be read and treated by professionals as follows.

First, USA missile attack against Syria in the current execution will destroy the world order based on the UN with UN Security Council and international law has existed until today. As missile attack against Syria will have global consequences – this strike is directed first of all against the current world order solidified around UN and aimed to change-destroy power balance among permanent members of the UN Security Council.

Secondly, Syria is under military control of Russia (partly of Iran) and the viability of the Syrian government and her disabled armed forces and security forces completely depends on military contingent and arms of Russia, its naval base in Tartus and the Russian economic - humanitarian aid. The US coalition strike against Syria is a military global challenge to Russia and to Iran. When the President Trump says that he will strike Syria with missiles – it means not just death of the Russian military personnel in Syria and destruction of military Russian infrastructure - it is the beginning of real war of the USA against Russia and Iran in the Middle East. It is the same if Russia would attack any US ally in Europe and in the Pacific Rim, on territories where the American military bases are located, and then to tell: “look, we targeted one subject, but actually hit you!” Intelligence of the Pentagon really knows that, targeting Syria and its military-economic infrastructure even with US precise cruise missiles, it will entail numerous deaths of the Russian armed forces and the equipment in this country – and it is real war between two nuclear powers in fact.

Third, it is war between the nuclear USA and Russia can't have narrow and regional character (we are at war in the Middle East, and in Europe and Asia – we do not!), and automatically war gains global character with global risks and military involvement of many countries, first of all - Europeans. At the same time, nobody today can guarantee not usage of nuclear weapons by the fiting states at war.

Fourth, the mobilized troops – aircraft carrier groups (all components of a nuclear triad) can't constantly be in alert and high combat readiness – it is very expensive for any budget! They need to be applied as soon as possible! In this context and in addition to regional military collision of the USA and Russia in Syria, the key question to be raised – who will be next target?! This article argues that next combat application-continuation is “war appendix of Syria” and her logical continuation in geopolitical “domino effect” – Ukraine or Iran. This global war logical set-continuation  would push the war vector movement closer to Russia and Central Asia, and in the midterm to China and North Korea!

Fifth, at the same time, it is not important at all what kind of thought-up reason provocation will cause and justify external activation of "Syria No. 2 - Ukrainian front." It could be “terrorist attack” in the densely populated area in rush hour, or "attack of chemical weapon" in the Ukrainian cities (since US-Iraq war – charge in use of weapons of mass destruction components become the indulgence and justification for any military coalition campaign and punishment of the appointed target). "Skripal case" and "use of chemical weapon in the Syrian Duma" has prepared global public opinion for a new sensation. Ukraine in this context would be turned into the front state of the first Alliance echelon against Russia. This can potentially happen for Ukraine after Syria - without Ukraine being a member of NATO (without any obligations and security guarantees and any further promises for its territorial integrity and sustainable future). Ukraine would become state-sacrifice with all consequences as the first Alliance echelon across all territory of the Ukrainian-Russian border. Do you think that Russia would sleep and wait when NATO places the first strike group in Ukraine? – It will not of course!

Since US missile attack against Syria, any provocation terrorist attacks on the Ukrainian territory would have taken place during the period of spring-fall of 2018 would confirm and prove that there has been a pre-planned scenario and military-political aggravation between NATO-Russia around Ukraine as a continuation of geopolitical domino effect with inclusion-activation of “Syria-2-Ukraine.” This would not only activate “Syria-2-Ukraine” and potential military collision between the USA and Russia, but activate “European front”  with Europe involvement in the World War III. At any similar scenarios of further developments around Ukraine after US strike against Syria – Ukraine is expected by the fate of Syria with total destructions, depopulation and loss of independence.

Observers note and express additional concern in Ukraine, in this context, about beginning of spreading information on the radical nationalist processes and ambiguous tendencies, which have begun independently of each other in Hungary, Poland and Romania around preparation of public opinion and increase of the hidden territorial claims and protection of "the rights of their ethnic minorities" (Polish, Hungarian, Romanian minorities) in Lviv, Volyn, Transcarpathian and Chernivtsi oblasts of the Western Ukraine. In addition, dead discussion on subject of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact is dug out from a historical coffin. If the geopolitical project-sacrifice "Syria 2 - Ukraine" receives its confirmation, then NATO troops consist of Poland, Hungary and Romania military units would be soon deployed in these Western Ukraine regions (for the purpose of their subsequent annexation under any pretext later) and Bulgaria and Greece forces would deployed in the Southern regions  of Ukraine.

Some NATO strategists will try to challenge above proposed potential scenario, but the author with all confidence can say that without "Syria No. 2 - Ukraine" scenario - World War III with involvement of Europe and the NATO European countries in the World war with Russia and with China – is not possible in principle! Without occupation of Ukraine by NATO troops under any external pretext (even with the simulated invitation of NATO troops from Ukrainian President-Government-Parliament) – World War III between the European NATO member states with Russia – is not possible in principle! It is impossible to involve Europe and the European NATO member states in war with Russia waging at the same time war only around Syria. Members of NATO as Germany and Canada have already refused to send the troops to the USA war coalition against Syria. The necessary condition for the next domino development of "The Syrian war" between the USA and Russia in pretext of the Third World War is its logical continuation-connection to Ukraine and European battlefield that activates directly NATO and its European member states against Russia. The small territory of the Baltic States or around semi-neutral Belarus to provoke European-NATO full scale war with Russia are not enough. The global splash-provocation in any form, which would lead for war between NATO and Russia around Ukraine, has been already on the Global War market place.        Then, "Syria 2 - Ukraine" in the spring – summer of 2018 has to become logical and automatic continuation of the conflict in the Middle East, after the USA missiles attack in Syria. Therefore, the true purpose of blow by the American cruise missiles across Syria is not only Russian military victims in Syria, it is first of all start of geopolitical domino effect with following next stage “Syria-2-Ukraine” or “Iran”.

The geopolitical project-sacrifice "Syria No. 2 — Ukraine" becomes a Pandora's box for Europe in the nearest months.

Is there a chance for Europe to prevent or delay in time the scenario of retraction in World war III?

The U.S. President Donald Trump and "hawks" in Washington D.C. need to save face and not to lose morally the main NATO military allies. There have been invested a lot in combat training of NATO for global war in recent years. Moreover, nobody recalled back aircraft carrier group with cruise missiles and forces to their home bases. Therefore as someone speaks – "it has been paid, so show must go on under any pretext"! Therefore US cruise missiles against Syria will probably depart without dependence on any result of the current diplomatic peace negotiations.

The main strategic question for Europeans has to be concentrated on the second part of geopolitical domino effect now – "Syria 2 - Ukraine"! This part still can be managed. Europeans have full potential to prevent or to delay significantly in time the scenario of explosion of Ukraine as logical continuation of Syria for the purpose of  Global War between European NATO states with Russia.

How it can be done? The leading countries of "Old" - Western Europe, due to the European diplomacy with Kiev, pressure and economic incentives for Ukraine, have to play over architects of World War III regarding Ukraine. For this purpose, Germany as leader of the EU and member-state of NATO:

1) has to create de facto the anti-war coalition of the countries within the EU;

2) should create and strongly support to the anti-war movement of civil societies in Europe strengthened by European and global media;

3) has to begin comprehensive diplomacy within the UN, the EU, OSCE, NATO with concrete proposals to Russia and the USA regarding European peace initiatives and confidence building measures. There should be courageous politicians-players among the European states for the sake of the peace in Europe, who can be capable to veto use of NATO to sacrifice Ukraine and in global war with Russia for the far-fetched reasons;

4) Diplomatically, the choice and incentives should be offered for Ukraine and its President Petr Poroshenko as Nobel Peace Prize "for peace initiatives and prevention of retraction of Ukraine in Global war" and real peacemaking, non-military block or even neutrality as the conditions in time of aggravation of global crisis;

5) The official non-military block - neutrality status of Ukraine has to be supported by Europe diplomatically and economically with the corresponding diplomatic pressure on Russia to accept this scenario. Switzerland can head of the European coalition of the non-block-neutral countries of Europe on conducting the concrete diplomatic and advisory help to Ukraine;

Having excluded Ukraine from geopolitical "domino effect" and overall scenario, the USA cruise missiles fired at Syria have chance to be strong regional military crisis between the USA and Russia without automatic transformation into World War III and direct involvement of Europe.

Geopolitical football, sufficient time for proper reaction and crucial strategic decisions chance now in the field of Europe.

Loran Tomson for Front News International

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