On the eve of the New Year, an election campaign officially started in Ukraine, where until February 4, all comers are required to submit their candidatures. There are only a few months left until the next presidential race. The main candidates were known long before the start of the campaign, but the main political intrigue of this race was revealed at the very last moment.
The decision that many Ukrainians had been waiting for was finally officially announced out loud — the head and actor of the Quarter 95 studio, Volodymyr Zelensky, decided to fight for the presidency of Ukraine in March 2019, while already having his own political force, which was registered in 2017 under the name "Servant of the people".
The opinions of Ukrainians about such a comedian’s decision have been divided before. For part of Ukrainian society, the official appearance of Volodymyr Zelensky in Ukrainian politics means a considerable chance to eradicate the previously comprehensively rotten system of government, in which, despite the efforts of individual political officials, as before, there is a high level of corruption.
According to the latest opinion polls, Zelensky’s figure has every chance of reaching the second round of the presidential race, where he is credited with various opponents. It is curious that in all polls, it was Volodymyr who secured a firm position in the second round, in contrast to already existing politicians, such as Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, Grytsenko, and others. In contrast to the current guarantor of the Constitution, the main priorities of which are “Army, language, faith”, the main priorities of the Zelensky can only be assumed. But despite this, Zelensky, as a new political figure who proved to be a fighter for justice in his “election” film “Servant of the People”, can bravely challenge all the old politicians and confidently win the race.
The main participants of the battle
The names of the main contenders for the next presidential term were announced long before the start of the election campaign. These are well-known names, in particular the leader of the Batkivshchyna Yulia Timoshenko, the MP Yuriy Boyko, the leader of the Civic Position party Anatoly Grytsenko, the MP Alexander Shevchenko, the leader of the Radical Party Oleh Lyashko, and others. According to the latest poll by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, 11.9% of the votes in the first round of presidential elections are predicted by the head of Batkivshchyna, Yulia Tymoshenko. In the second place of the rating - Vladimir Zelensky (8.2%). The current president, Petro Poroshenko can get 6.5% of the vote. Opposition candidate Yuriy Boyko has 6.2% of the votes.
Also, the institute conducted a study of the alleged results of the second round of presidential elections. The numbers were as follows:
Poroshenko (11.8%) - Tymoshenko (23.4%)
Boyko (19%) - Poroshenko (15.3%)
Gritsenko (20.4%) - Tymoshenko (20.8%). The result is within the margin of error.
Boyko (15.2%) - Tymoshenko (23.4%)
Vakarchuk (18.9%) - Timoshenko (23.4%)
Zelensky (23%) - Tymoshenko (22.2%). The result is within the margin of error.
Vakarchuk (24.2%) - Poroshenko (11.1%)
Zelensky (27.8%) - Poroshenko (12.2%).
Second chance for Poroshenko
The situation with the nomination of the current guarantor Petro Poroshenko, who has not yet made uniform statements about his intentions to fight for the second presidential term, is quite moderate. Obviously, Poroshenko will announce his plans in the coming days after the start of the election campaign, as it should be. However, this is quite a rational decision - not to give a reason for their opponents to use their still legitimate activities as pre-election actions, in particular, meetings and trips at the state level.
But as for Yulia Tymoshenko, the numbers of the polls confidently say that she significantly wins the competition from Petro Poroshenko. In other cases, surprises are quite real.
According to various sources, from 20 to 30% of respondents did not decide who they would vote for at the presidential election. Presumably, this can be explained by the fact that from year to year, Ukrainians have to choose the head of state among the old political figures who, during all the years of independence of Ukraine, have managed to be remembered for their unrealized promises and reforms that did not take place. And it is quite likely that these undecided 30% of voters will decide who will be the next president of Ukraine.
Karina Hakobyan, FNI