- Before writing this text two main goals were set: to try to fully reveal the
portrait of the re-election of President of the Russia Vladimir Putin and to
give the most probable strategic forecast of Putin's activity as the leader of country
for the coming years. For this Putin's image-portrait was considered from the
political and strategic side.
“Putin 2018” is a classic video technology image, a media product created by professional teams and modern Russian media, commissioned by a group that controls the state and the main resources of the economy. I called this exclusively Russian phenomenon – ‘Megacorporation Putin’. There is no such thing in the democratic US and European countries, built on the system of safety balances in power. This approach does not allow for a long time to monopolize power. Therefore, the Western view of Putin always sins with narrow and limited understanding. A huge array of data for analyzing and assessing the question of who he is and where Vladimir Putin came from, and what is based on his power - 80% of the information required for analysis - lies on the surface in the public domain. It is critically and methodologically important not to chain yourself with chains to any one image of Putin in order to avoid a narrow view and not get into the prepared propaganda mutually exclusive trap-trap.
Megacorporation "Putin" has been creating and constantly developing parallel media projects of Putin's identity: Putin is a European democrat and ‘our German’, opposed to the global hegemony of the United States; Putin is a democratic ruler and liberal emancipator of the Eurasian country, as Emperor Peter the Great leading Russia to Europe; Putin - Soviet patriot, secret communist, savior and defender of the Fatherland; Putin is a cunning scout who has confronted many years of the CIA and is fighting Western intelligence services; Putin always achieves the set goals for the benefit of Russia; Putin is an Orthodox monarchist, a secret fighter with liberals in Russia, a collector of Russian lands and a future "people's king"; 18 years of Putin's rule is a successfully developing country and economy, hope for a bright future; Putin is a world-class science of Russia and the most developed youth; Putin is an athlete, a hockey player and a friend of Russian-global sports; Putin - our peasant and "his in the board," a lover of fishing and extreme sports; Putin is a handsome man, leading spectacular interviews with Western journalists, and so on. Over each similar identity, professional teams of PR-propagandists, filmmakers and image-makers work. Modern Russia is a gallery of endless pictures-images of Putin - "Potemkin villages", behind which growing social and economic disparity lies.
Megacorporation "Putin" is his own Hollywood and at the same time "Putin's ideological Central Committee of the CPSU". It is a dollar multibillionaire state transnational corporation living at the expense of the Russian budget, whose price is political, ideological, economic control and exploitation of Russia's non-depleted natural resources, "cut off" the state budget, control over the government, the population of the Russian Federation and the Russian nuclear button, armed forces and special services, an endless territory. Not understanding this Megacorporation and the products of its activities, anyone runs the risk of falling into the pit-trap of that classic perception of Putin as the President of the Russian Federation, which is closest to someone at the mental level. Megacorporation "Putin" is not a part of the Russian Federation but Russian Federation is a part of the Megacorporation "Putin".
Putin and the media
It can be said with certainty that by 2018 the Soviet phenomenon of the twentieth century has been recreated, practically religious deification and servility before the supreme leader-leader of Russia - the cult of personality of Vladimir Putin. What is Putin's cult of personality? Putin as an information propaganda product of Megacorporation "Putin" becomes a self-sufficient secular Russian religion. Russian citizens in all seriousness enter into a serious mass religious ecstasy, a conflict between those who on an irrational level consider the sacred image of Putin as the savior of Russia and those who see him as a criminal liar, constantly reproducing the "Potemkin villages."
A believer in Putin is a man formed by TV-set, selflessly believing in Putin's media product as a "successful ruler of Russia." These people often ignore the modern reality of Russia, and sometimes even are able to sacrifice their lives "for their Motherland-for Putin!". The essence of this religious image - without Putin, Russia will perish and return to a worse state than in the 1990s with a geopolitical catastrophe, the collapse of the country and poverty. Putin is an information umbrella, a camouflage net: behind an impeccable sporting bearing and diplomatic-protocol clothes is hidden the total corruption of power and the falsity of the country's all-round successes. The personality cult of Putin is an instrument of mass mental-religious power, control over Russia and its people.
Working with a huge array of extremely open sources (official and independent), a number of image-driven multi-billion-dollar films made professionally for several years, in the context of the current Presidential election campaign and in favor of one candidate, have provided substantial help and complement to the critical systemic understanding of Putin's image: (by Vladimir Soloviov) and the film "Putin" in two parts of 2018 (by Andrey Kondrashov), the film "Putin" (by Oliver Stone, 2017), the film "The President" (by Vladimir Soloviev, 2015), the film "Valaam" in 2018 (by Andrei Kondrashov).
Quite in the theme of supporting the presidential elections, a film appeared that appeared as an espionage TV series supporting Putin - "Sleepers". This is almost a series of "17 Moments of Spring", where Putin is associated with Stirlitz, USSR era spy movie hero. In addition, a powerful propaganda attack is conducted daily on federal channels. One should only look at the "News of the Week" with Dmitry Kiseliov or "The Evening with Vladimir Soloviev".
Specificity of the work of information and propaganda factories is that their activities are actively provided by Russian special services and security forces. President Putin can be scolded, but Megacorporation “Putin” is an untouchable "sacred cow" and hides behind the facade of Russian state bodies which can all be criticized.
The above films and propaganda factories have a double bottom, reveal the de facto deep image of Putin and the imperial interests of Megacorporation. But, the teams of Megacorporations overdid and "merged" with Putin about that information, which was not enough to understand who Vladimir Putin really is, what machine he brought into power. These films laid the mechanism for the destruction-ruin of the image of Putin and Megacorporation itself. Moreover, they disclosed to attentive researchers that Megacorporation “Putin” considers the presidential elections only as a transitional stage and is prepared with all seriousness for the "people's monarchy" with cardinal changes in the world order and power in Europe and Eurasia.
“Putin 2018” is a slave of his TV-image - brightly admires his created image and subtly poses for television cameras. Two films "The World Order of 2018" (Vladimir Soloviev) and "Putin" of 2018 (Andrey Kondrashev) are classics of the Russian mass media in terms of preparing the TV-image of the "secular emancipated Russian Tsar vol. 2018".
Global media fame, almost complete control of the Russian media space and professional information operations - 70% of Putin's power, according to my estimates. The factory of the image of the current ruler of Russia and Putin's information operations in the media regarding the game on the Russian-post-Soviet matrix of perception of the world, values and expectations of the population is the religious basis of the power of Putin and his team. Putin as a collective religious image of a "kind and professional ruler", the guarantor of the return of a special, just and proper world order in Russia and in Eurasia.
Any electoral alternative to Putin is initially and completely lost candidate to the presidency. This presidential candidate, if not a "system duck" as Zhirinovsky, automatically loses to Megacorporations Putin who projects the future of his power for many years to come and has in his subordination the entire strength of the Russian state. It's not that the view of "opposition candidates" for Russia is simplistic, sometimes naive, and does not differ from the image of the "reformer-destroyer-corruptor" of the early 90's. The main thing is that Megacorporation “Putin” created a system - power-nomination-elections in Russia. This system will not allow a dangerous alternative to advance and win in the presidential election. Megacorporation “Putin” has total information power in Russia and almost completely provides information and image security for Putin.
Putin and the Russian monarchy
Recently, the Megacorporation has invested in Putin the belief that he can even be the emperor-ruler of Russia - the "people's tsar", and even "not anointed to the kingdom." Therefore, such scrupulous system work can be traced from a nationwide nomination (not from the United Russia Party) as a candidate to the President of the Russian Federation and ending with a special media attention to Putin's connection with the Russian Orthodox Church.
Megacorporation “Putin” is well aware that for Putin under the Constitution of the Russian Federation the last term has come 2018-2024 after which the ruler can come to power, which will open criminal cases against all supporters of the ex-president, implicated in criminal corruption schemes of looting Russia of the last two decades and withdrawal of funds to offshore, acquisition of real estate abroad. The new ruler of Russia will devalue and neutralize the entire system of power of the Megacorporation, authorities, capitals and real estate of its members both in Russia and abroad. There is a serious risk that the new ruler will try to return to the state Russia's sovereignty and free from the colonial dependence of Megacorporation Putin. The only condition for the safe existence of the current ruling bloc with the tens of thousands of political functionaries, "law enforces", oligarchs and influential families of managers in the power of the state that subordinates the state is Putin's "accession" and the introduction of a democratic "people's monarchy" in Russia that will make authoritarian rule of Tsar Vladimir Putin is unlimited, the power and money of Megacorporation - legal and inherited, Russia - the legitimate property of the Megacorporation “Putin”.
During the preparation and holding of the presidential elections of 2018, Megacorporation “Putin” already took the path of Putin's accession and began to create a "new Russian nobility". Therefore, the whole post-election period should be expected to work purposefully around the formation of a legal, religious and ideological basis for the introduction in Russia of the Constitutional Monarchy of Vladimir Putin acceptable in both traditional Europe and in traditional Russia and Eurasia. Under this can even organize the Patriotic War with the Western invaders. The monarchical democratic idea of Megacorporation Putin will be automatically and enthusiastically supported both in Russia (Chechnya, Tatarstan), and in Belarus (Lukashenka), Kazakhstan (Nazarbayev), Azerbaijan (Aliyev) and other parts of the former Soviet empire, the collapse of liberal democracy and the need for a hereditary transfer of power from post-communist rulers to their heirs and the legalization of looted capital as a result of corruption-related criminal activities. The social basis for the introduction of monarchical rule in Russia should be loyal to Megacorporation “Putin” law enforces and regional managers-leaders of the Federation - the "new nobility" of the United Russia party, the law enforces and Co. with the right to transfer money and power by inheritance.
The fact that Putin is preparing for "reign", says not only the nature of the pre-election formation of his great-power image of the Russian ruler of Russia, but also a number of other systemic signs.
The process of presenting Putin as the Orthodox future of the "people's tsar" has been developing for several years already. For this, Putin was even taken to Athos in Greece, where he was placed during the Liturgy in the armchair of the Byzantine emperor. The Greeks quite seriously expect that Putin will become a Russian tsar who will start a war with Turkey and liberate Constantinople (present-day Istanbul) for the Greeks. Therefore, one should take seriously the fact that the project of the Megacorporation for "Putin's accession" really takes on an international one - "European character". In this regard, with all care, it will be necessary to take into account any "unexpected" military clash between Putin's Russia and Erdogan's Turkey during the new term of Vladimir Putin's rule. And it will not be a surprise if it suddenly turns out that Putin's troops instead of Syria will be in Constantinople-Istanbul.
The main real threat to the monarchical project of Putin is the Anglo-Saxon world and the Europe mobilized within the framework of NATO. Can the candidate for Russian monarchs Vladimir Putin agree with the British Crown and President Donald Trump? Time will tell. If Pope Francis stands on his side, the scales may outweigh Megacorporations. In any case, the intrigue surrounding the monarchy in Russia and Eurasia, the extension of the life-long powers of Putin and Megacorporation, will be a key topic for the next six years both in Russia and internationally.
Putin and geopolitics - relations with US, Europe, Ukraine
The United States and Britain helped Vladimir Putin win the presidential election in 2018. If you believe in the "conspiracy theory", you can perceive the case of the poisoning of Skripal a week before the election, the subsequent military and diplomatic scandal between the UK-US-NATO and Russia, as a secret agreement for the re-election of Putin as President of Russia.
First, the United States and Britain first adopted a sanctions list regarding Putin's entourage than "welded" this environment to Putin - making their fate controllable and dependent on Putin, and, at the same time, did not really do anything to actually punish the corrupt officials of the corporation. Secondly, "attacking" Putin with accusations of poisoning Skripal a few days before the vote in the presidential election - made Putin an uncontested winner in the presidential elections in Russia. It is well known that the Russians, in an external threat, mobilize around the leader of the country, even which they can hate. So it was with Lenin, Stalin, Khrushchev and other dictators of the Soviet period. What prompted US President Trump and British Prime Minister Theresa May to help Vladimir Putin be reelected is difficult to answer today. It is possible that the answer to this question for Europeans will be the nearest military company of Russia and NATO. The external threat from the Anglo-Saxons and NATO makes Megacorporation “Putin” not a sunk aircraft carrier controlling Russia. So is Megacorporation “Putin” beneficial to NATO?
So what will Putin's geopolitics and foreign policy preferences be in the period 2018-2024?
Putin outlined the foreign policy doctrine of the new presidential term in his Address to the Federal Assembly, which more resembled the traditional party congress of the CPSU for internal consumption with muscle play and in Vladimir Soloviev's film "The World Order 2018". The latter was the actual signal to Europe-West, the essence of which is Russia - a great sovereign power and it is necessary to negotiate with it. "To drive a rat into a remote corner" in Putin's opinion is very dangerous. Putin is ready to integrate Russia into Europe on the model of "Chancellor Helmut Kohl" and build a single Russian-German-European civilization unless the US extends its extraterritorial jurisdiction to Russia and its interests.
Those who know the Russian language should see two iconic films-interpretations of the "World Order-2018" (Vladimir Soloviov) and "Putin" in two parts (Andrei Kondrashov), which can be considered a public code of Putin's foreign policy and geopolitical strategy for the next six-year period. To this we should add that Megacorporation “Putin” will seek to change the world order of Eurasia in the part of a coordinated change in the liberal-democratic regime that has failed in most post-Soviet countries to "people's monarchy".
The main European partners in the foreign policy preferences of Putin are Germany, Italy and Co - the countries of "Old Europe". We should not exclude the attempt to win back the model of Russian-German strategic rapprochement if Putin returns Donetsk and Lugansk as Ukraine's control, as it had in history a place around the agreements between Kohl and Gorbachev and the return of the GDR to the united state of the FRG and the withdrawal of Soviet troops from the GDR and Czechoslovakia.
Today's situation for Putin is something similar to the USSR for Gorbachev in the matter of the GDR and Czechoslovakia of the 1988 period. If this trend develops, it should not be ruled out that significant changes in diplomatic progress will arise around Transnistria for Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia for Georgia. The international agenda will include the Euro-Atlantic bargaining factor - legalization around the "accession of Putin" and the introduction of a monarchy in Russia by the Megacorporation “Putin”.
Mutually controlled exacerbation-the conflict between the United States-Britain-NATO and Russia on the other hand will actively develop, since the United States needs to retain control over its NATO allies, and Russia over its allies in the CSTO. It is unlikely that the risk of nuclear war between NATO and Russia is currently seen, most likely, military clashes between the conflicting parties will continue to develop in the buffer territories like Syria and Ukraine. In this context, any military aggravation between the US-NATO and Russia, will strengthen the power of the ruler of Putin and Megacorporation but the US-NATO will refrain from direct military extremes and risks of a global nuclear war so as not to "drive the rat into a corner."
Of course with regard to a small compensation for Putin there is an Asian vector of development. However, this direction is not equal in reality and the US-NATO-Europe will not allow Putin to go completely to Asia, as the main markets and Russia's economic dependence in Europe. A similar vector is the southern part of the Middle East, where President Putin can play until the balance and contradictions between the US-Europe and Turkey, Iran and Israel. It is unlikely that Putin will be able to retain the power of Bashar Assad, which is likely to be the fate of the runaway president of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych.
Probably Megacorporation “Putin” will try not to aggravate the Ukrainian theme and even return Donetsk and Lugansk to Ukraine in the next few years under the pretext of holding the UN Peacekeeping Operation. Megacorporations need an excuse "for the preservation of the face," especially in relation to domestic hawks. At the same time, Putin needs trump cards for geopolitical trade to split the unity of Europe in terms of lifting sanctions and in terms of a single confrontation with Russia. It should be emphasized that the issue of Crimean membership in the Russian Federation is a red forbidden feature for Putin, which he and Megacorporation “Putin” cannot under any circumstances cross.
In general, the large-scale foreign policy doctrine of Vladimir Putin for the period 2018-2024 can be characterized as an attempt to agree in an amicable way with the West, and also to integrate the Russian Federation into a single European civilization (the new Peter the Great) at a time when Putin and Megacorporations are aging, weakening and become inadequate (a historical period similar in analogy between Leonid Brezhnev and Mikhail Gorbachev), and Russia becomes weak and dependent on external factors.
Preliminary conclusions: a projection around the re-election of Vladimir Putin
Putin's victory was initially uncontested in terms of "internal work" of the Megacorporation “Putin”. Russian Supreme Leader Vladimir Putin remains the predictable and predictable leader of the Russian Federation for the next six years, which significantly facilitates the global and European agenda of the NATO and EU countries.
At the international level, in terms of voiced priorities and interests, President Putin will try to agree with Europe (primarily the "Old") and the US on the rules of the game in terms of international security and mutual consideration of interests.
Megacorporation “Putin” cannot afford to lose power and control over the supreme leader and Russia. For this, the whole range of instruments will be used - from the contract with the West in the part of military and geopolitical concessions from Russia, to the closed eyes of the world to the "personality cult of Putin" and the recognition of the monarchy in Russia.
At the same time, it should be noted that Megacorporation “Putin” in 2017-2018 entered the process of "Brezhnevization", which in certain internal and external conditions can cost Russia and the world significant risks.
At the same time, it should be noted that Vladimir Putin is the best incarnation (except for Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin) for working with the West and for integrating the synchronization of Europe's cooperation with Russia. All subsequent historical figures of Russia will try to restore traditional Russia. Putin 2018 in its aggregate quality is a historical phenomenon. Both it and the current Russian elite can be compared to the crashed representatives of the February Revolution in Russia in 1917 and the so-called "White Movement", as well as to the failed First Revolution - the uprising of the "Decembrists" in Russia in 1825. In general, the 18-year rule of modern "Decembrists" in Russia in the person of Megacorporation “Putin” historically leads this group to a historical paradox - to attempts to restore absolutism and monarchy in Russia by the same Russian democrats.
In the following years Putin's Religious Cult of Personality will continue to actively develop and the power of his team - Megacorporation “Putin” strengthen over control over all spheres of life in the country.
Otherwise Putin himself must start a new way of thinking, "restructuring" and destroy the basis of his absolute power - the Megacorporation “Putin”.